More than 20% of the way through the 2020 KBO regular season schedule, we should take another peek at league averages to see how they compare to 2019:
Run-scoring in the KBO has increased by nearly 17% compared to last season, while home runs remain up by 42%, at exactly one per game.
The KBO's league-average OPS has increased by more than five percent, with the average KBO hitter now sporting a triple-slash line closer to MLB's 2019 Adam Frazier (.278/.336/.417) than Lorenzo Cain (.260/.325/.372).
The disparity between the top and bottom of the league is substantial, however. In 2019, the difference between the top MLB offense in OPS (Houston, .848) and the last-place team (Miami, .673) was 175 points.
In the KBO, the difference between the top and bottom teams in OPS was fewer than 100 points last season, but has climbed to a 251-point gap this year, as the Dinos (.890) and Eagles (.639) are either well-ahead of or well-behind the pace, respectively.
The Eagles are in the midst of a 14-game losing streak — a new club record –and their manager Yong-duk Han resigned over the weekend after getting blown out by a combined 35-6 margin during a three-game set with the Dinos.
The Dinos will look to stay hot on Tuesday, as they play host to the reigning KBO champion Doosan Bears.
If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.
- KBO Year to Date: 40-58 (-11.65 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 34-26 (+9.98 Units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Monday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos
- Bears moneyline: +145
- Dinos moneyline: -182
- Over/under: 12.5
- Time: 5:00 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: Doosan Bears (Je-yeong Jo) vs. NC Dinos (Sung-young Choi)
The Doosan Bears and NC Dinos are the two hottest teams in the KBO, entering Tuesday with 7-3 records in each of their past ten games and winning streaks of four and five games, respectively.
They are also two of the three best offensive teams in the league, with the Dinos sporting a league-best 128 wRC+, while the Bears rank just behind the LG Twins with a 114 wRC+.
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher's ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It's adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
Both teams rank mid-pack in terms of FIP, with the Dinos (4.66) in fifth and the Bears (4.73) in sixth place, and bullpen effectiveness could be crucial on Tuesday with a pair of young starters squaring off to begin this three-game series.
The Bears will send out 19-year-old Je-yeong Jo for his first KBO start after their fourth-round pick allowed nine runs and 15 hits over 15 innings in the KBO futures league (10 BB, 10 K).
The Dinos will counter with 23-year-old lefty Sung-young Choi, who has posted an 8.47 FIP in two appearances this season, after recording a slightly below-average 4.22 FIP between the Dinos' bullpen and rotation last year.
The southpaw tops out at around 87 mph, and I'm not particularly impressed with either his forkball or slider as secondary offerings:
In addition to his subpar stuff, Choi has allowed 85 walks in 169.2 career innings pitched, with subpar strikeout numbers.
The Bears' lineup consists of mostly left-handed bats, however — including the formidable pairing of Jose Miguel Fernandez (175 wRC+) and Jae-il Oh (154 wRC+) — so Choi is probably a decent match for their lineup, with his ability to throw a lefty on lefty forkball.
I project the Dinos as 55.9% favorites for Tuesday, and I would bet the Dinos to -110 (implied 52.4%), which is a 3.5% edge compared to my projection.
Conversely, I would look to bet the Bears at +150 (implied 40%) or better, which is a 4.1% edge compared to my projection (44.1%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
I project the total at 12.5 runs and would bet Over 10.5 (-121), Over 11 (-111), or Over 11.5 (-101) at a 4% edge.
See all of Sunday's KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Bears-Dinos game, and Tuesday's other KBO and CPBL games.
Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos Picks
- Doosan Bears +150 (1 unit)
- Doosan Bears Team Total, Over 4.5 (-135, 0.5 units)
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]
Full KBO Betting Card for June 9
- Doosan Bears +150 (1 unit)
- Doosan Bears Team Total, Over 4.5 (-135, 0.5 units)
- Hanwha Eagles Team Total, Over 3.5 (-120, 0.5 units)
- Kiwoom Heroes Team Total, Over 5.5 (+100, 0.5 units)
- KT Wiz +138 (1 unit)
- Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 4.5 (-115, 0.5 units)
- SK Wyverns Team Total, Over 3.5 (-110, 0.5 units)
KBO Year to Date: 40-58 (-11.65 Units)
Full CPBL Betting Card for June 9
- TBD
CPBL Year to Date: 34-26 (+9.98 Units)
Zerillo's Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 9
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below:
