Amidst a sustained run of success for favorites and unders, KBO underdogs bit back on Tuesday with a 4-1 day and 29 combined runs, with four of the five games going over their listed total, and all five underdogs covering their team total.
The Hanwha Eagles (+145) were the only underdog to lose, dropping their 19th game in their past 21 contests while ending their two-game winning streak, but they did manage to score five runs — their second-highest output since May 29.
I finally recorded my first KBO sweep (6-0) of the season on Tuesday, in addition to pocketing more closing line value, but I'm fully aware of the luck that it takes to have a perfect day, knowing full well that 0-6 was still within reach.
The KT Wiz blew two saves before eventually winning in the 10th inning against the SK Wyverns, the KIA Tigers scored six runs over their final three frames to come back against the NC Dinos, and the Lotte Giants benefitted from three errors by the Kiwoom Heroes on the same play, which led to a pair of second-inning runs.
It's nice to see some positive variance around here, for a change. Hopefully it keeps up for a bit longer.
If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.
- KBO Year to Date: 60-76 (-9.36 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 35-29 (+7.54 Units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
Odds as of noon ET on Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles
- Twins moneyline: -195
- Eagles moneyline: +160
- Over/under: 10.5
- Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: LG Twins (Chan-gyu Lim) vs. Hanwha Eagles (Chad Bell)
The Twins defeated the Eagles, 9-5, on Tuesday behind 15 hits and three walks from their offense, despite the continued absence of slugger Roberto Ramos (198 wRC+) who remains out of the lineup with back and ankle injuries.
Ramos, who leads the KBO with 13 homers, will be held out of the Twins lineup again on Wednesday, but he could return for the series finale against the Eagles on Thursday.
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher's ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It's adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
The Twins will hope that Chan-gyu Lim (4.31 FIP) can get back on track in his seventh start, after allowing four homers and nine runs over his past two outings. Relative to other KBO hurlers, Lim has excellent command metrics this year, averaging one strikeout per inning with a 3.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.98 league average)
Lim made 53 starts for the Twins between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he recorded an ERA north of 5.00 over that span and was moved to the bullpen to begin last season.
He re-entered the rotation during the final two months of 2019, however, and recorded a 29:14 K/BB ratio over his final seven appearances (32.1 innings pitched).
Lim's fastball command has really stood out:
Después de un inicio muy tambaleante, Lim Chan-gyu retira, de nuevo, en orden. 7 chocolates lleva anotados en la comanda de la mesa número 4.#KBOpic.twitter.com/p0psOnmkiV
— Diablo Yaqui #25 ⚾ (@DiabloYaqui) May 24, 2020
Chad Bell (7.98 FIP) will make his fifth start of the season for the Hanwha Eagles, and will hope to complete the fifth inning for the first time, after allowing 15 runs over his past three appearances and 12 innings pitched.
Bell was a league-average starter in 2019 (4.10 FIP) while posting a 2.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he looked to finally be rounding into form in his last start (5 K, 2 BB) after missing spring training.
He offers solid fastball velocity (average 94 mph in 2018) with two breaking balls (slider and curveball both around 25% usage) and an infrequent changeup.
I suspect that we'll finally see his best stuff on Wednesday.
I project the Twins as 63.5% favorites for Wednesday, and I would bet the Twins to -150 (implied 60%), which is a 3.5% edge compared to my projection.
Conversely, I would look to bet the Eagles at +210 (implied 32.3%) or better, which is a 4.2% edge compared to my projection (36.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
I project the total at 10.43 runs and would bet Under 11.5 (-104) or Over 9.5 (-103) at a 3.9% edge.
See all of Wednesday's KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Twins-Eagles game, and Wednesday's other KBO and CPBL games.
LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles Picks
- N/A
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]
Full KBO Betting Card for June 17
- KIA Tigers +167 (1 unit)
- KIA Tigers Team Total, Over 3.5 (-123, 0.5 units)
- Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 3.5 (+101, 0.5 units)
KBO Year to Date: 60-76 (-9.36 Units)
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]
Full CPBL Betting Card for June 17
- N/A
CPBL Year to Date: 35-29 (+7.54 Units)
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]
Zerillo's Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 17
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below:
