Nationals vs. Mets Odds
| Nationals Odds | +170 |
| Mets Odds | -210 |
| Total | 9 (-115 / -105) |
| Date | Thursday, July 27 |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
The New York Mets begin a four-game series with the Washington Nationals on Thursday night at Citi Field.
Josiah Gray will be on the bump for the Nationals, while Kodai Senga will start for the Mets.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Senga player prop at BetMGM. The prognostication is expecting Senga to struggle against the Nationals.
It's a bet on the under.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every MLB player prop on the market.
Kodai Senga Player Prop Prediction, Projection
Senga has had a pretty solid season on the mound for the Mets this season.
Through 18 starts in 2023, the Japanese right-hander has a 7-5 record with a 3.27 ERA. He has had no problem striking guys out with an 11.36 K/9 this season. That is expected to change tonight.
BetMGM has set the total for over 5.5 strikeouts at -160, while the under is +125. That's the best price on the under in the market.
The model predicts Senga will have exactly 5.5 strikeouts tonight, good enough for about a 9% betting edge.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Kodai Senga Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)
