Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
460-354-22, +70.52 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 235-176-4, +34.45 Units
- NHL: 66-80-7, -7.57 Units
- MLB: 15-15-2, -2.62 Units
- Golf: 4-7-1, -2.35 Units
- NASCAR: 5-8-0, -1.70 Units
- NCAAB: 91-52-8, +26.95 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 23-2-0, +12.64 Units
Freedman’s Favorite MLB Player Prop for Friday, April 5: Kris Bryant Over/Under 2.5 Hits, Runs & RBIs
- Over 2.5: +105
- Under 2.5: -135
I had success a few nights ago when I ventured into the batter prop market — I bet Mike Trout under 2.5 hits, runs & RBIs (HRRBIs) — and tonight there's another batting prop that catches my eye.
For strikeout props, see Mark Gallant’s pitcher piece.
Today we have a large 12-game slate, one of the final games of which features the Cubs at the Brewers (8:10 p.m. ET).
Chicago third baseman Kris Bryant by reputation is one of the best players in baseball. In 2015, he was the NL Rookie of the Year, and in 2016 he won NL MVP.
But tonight I'm betting against him.
In the seasons since his 2016 breakout, Bryant has regressed. In 2015-16, he averaged 2.42 HRRBIs per game. Since then, that number has dropped to 2.23.
In his 259 games since 2017, Bryant has had two or fewer HRRBIs in 160 games (61.8%).
And Bryant has opened 2019 with what looks like a slump. The sample is small, but he has a career-low .240 batting average and .345 on-base percentage through six games. There's more than enough time in the season for Bryant to turn his campaign around, but so far he's been a suboptimal version of himself.
Milwaukee pitcher Brandon Woodruff isn't a dynamo — he has just 13 MLB starts in his career — but he does have a solid 3.71 FIP.
On top of that, Bryant has a mediocre Park Factor of 55 at Miller Park (per the FantasyLabs MLB Models), and against the right-handed Woodruff, Bryant has negative splits with his -0.092 wOBA and -0.159 ISO differentials.
I’d bet under 2.5 HRRBIs all the way down to -165.
The Pick: Under 2.5 (-135)
Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
