For the Tuesday, April 1, MLB slate, I wrote up previews for nine starting pitchers who will be on the bump.
One of those pitchers was Mariners ace Logan Gilbert, who was absolutely electric last week on Opening Day against the Athletics. And I think he'll stay hot on Tuesday night against the Tigers.
My strikeout prop pick for Tuesday night is Logan Gilbert to go OVER 7.5 strikeouts — find my analysis and scouting report for this prop bet below.
Logan Gilbert Player Props: Strikeout Pick vs. Tigers
Logan Gilbert
After writing up my glowing report on Logan Gilbert and seeing his prop (correctly) open at 8.5, juiced to the under, this was initially a pass for me.
But now? With the number down to 7.5 and books hanging it at -115 to -120? I’m in.
Maybe sharp money came in on the under — fading elite pitchers when their K prop is a tad high can absolutely be a profitable angle. But I think the market might be overlooking just how good this spot is for Gilbert.
I already highlighted his increased split-finger usage in his season debut — it carried a ridiculous 64% whiff rate. He struck out eight over seven innings against the A’s, and while people might shrug that off as “It's just the A’s,” this year’s version has actually made much better contact to start the season.
My model had Gilbert at 7.2 expected Ks, so the performance was legit, not just matchup-driven.
This Tigers matchup? Even better.
- 3rd-lowest zone contact rate
- 2nd-highest overall whiff rate
That’s a brutal combo for hitters facing someone like Gilbert, who’s pounding the zone and has three offspeed pitches capable of generating 30%+ whiff rates.
Gilbert came out attacking in his first start with a 91% first-pitch strike rate. He might want to dial that back a bit tonight since the Tigers swing at the first pitch at the fifth-highest rate, but the approach let him throw just 83 pitches across seven innings, keeping his efficiency high and innings potential intact. He should be closer to 90-93 pitches tonight and face around 24 batters.
And don’t forget the T-Mobile Park bump — it has the highest park factor for strikeouts in MLB, so Gilbert always gets a boost pitching at home.
Given the pitch count, matchup and underlying metrics, I’m projecting this closer to -150 for Over 7.5 Ks.
With the market hanging it at -115, this is a bet I’m happy to make.
