The New York Yankees have won seven of their last 10 games and now have their season back on track. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Angels are coming off an impressive series win over the New York Mets.
It’ll be right-hander Davis Daniel on the mound for the Halos opposite Luis Gil in the Bronx. Oddsmakers have made the Bombers overwhelming favorites, with Yankees moneyline odds pushing -300 at most shops. Meanwhile, the total is set at a flat 9 as of Tuesday morning.
For more analysis of all betting angles, let's dive into my Angels vs Yankees prediction for Tuesday, Aug, 6.
Angels vs Yankees Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+240 | 9 -104o / -118u | +1.5 +118 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-295 | 9 -104o / -118u | -1.5 -142 |
Angels vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Davis Daniel (LAA) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 11-5 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 4.91 / 4.04 | ERA / xERA | 3.20 / 3.36 |
| 3.62 / 3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 3.58 / 4.04 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.10 |
| 18.9% | K-BB% | 17.1% |
| 38.2% | GB% | 38.1% |
| 79 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 108 | Location+ | 94 |
John Feltman Makes His Angels vs Yankees Prediction
Angels Enter Series Riding High
The Halos are thriving entering this series in the Bronx, but they have a rude awakening incoming. The offense draws a tough matchup against Gil, who’s been churning out solid efforts on the mound since the calendar turned to July.
To make matters worse, the Angels have put up poor numbers against Gil in the past. They're an abysmal 1-for-23 against him, with that one hit being a home run by catcher Logan O’Hoppe.
Daniel gets the start for the Halos, and you can reference his numbers in the chart above. The only thing I’ll note is that Daniel limits hard contact, but he doesn't throw very hard.
He’s the type of pitcher who must live on the corners and consistently change speeds to keep the opposition off-balance. Asking Daniel to thrive against one of the best offenses in the American League is a tall task.
It’s a tough matchup on both sides of the diamond, and I can’t see the Halos having much success early on. Their best plan of attack would be to force Gil to exit the game early and cash in against a Yankees bullpen that’s been shaky over the last couple of months.
Gil Trending in Right Direction for Yankees
Gil draws a terrific matchup against the Halos tonight, and he’s been excellent in the second half of the season thus far. He wasn’t flawless against the Phillies in his last start, but his overall numbers in the last month are solid:
- 23 Innings
- 30 Strikeouts
- 2.35 ERA
- 1.00 WHIP
Gil's xFIP is a tad higher than his current era, but his xERA suggests he's right around where he should be.
Offensively, the Yankees should keep it rolling tonight. Daniel limits hard contact, but he doesn't miss enough bats. He has a ground-ball rate of just 38% rate, so I expect a lot of fly balls tonight. With that said, Yankee Stadium is the last ballpark a pitcher wants to give up a ton of fly balls in.
There might be an adjustment period with the offense considering it's never faced Daniel, but I don't expect it to last too long. The Yankees' bats should provide plenty of run support for Gil, who should also carve up the Angels.
Angels vs Yankees Prediction
It's as chalky as it gets, but I like the Yankees to win the first five innings by at least two runs. There's some value on F5 -1.5 at +110, so I think we should take advantage of the great matchup on both sides of the diamond.
Nobody is going to pick the Angels to win tonight, but sometimes the chalk has to win too.
The Yankees' bullpen might be at a disadvantage against the Angels' pen late in the game, so I wouldn't be surprised if they blow the run line late.
I'd much prefer to target the beginning of the game and begin Tuesday's slate with a victory.
Pick: Yankees F5 -1.5 +110
Moneyline
There's some intrigue with the Angels here, but the matchup is too poor on both sides of the diamond.
They're riding high after their series win over the Mets, but I think the Yankees take care of business tonight. Still, there's no way I'm running to the window to lay -275 with the Bombers.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
The Angels are currently +2.5 (-135) at BetMGM, and it's not every day you see a run-line that large. With that said, I still don't trust their offense to break through against Gil.
The Yankees' bullpen is shaky, but they might be in a big enough hole by the time Gil exits the game.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
The Yankees should score a decent amount of runs tonight, but their offense is known to disappoint on occasion.
The Angels have yet to figure out Gil, and I actually think their bullpen is extremely underrated despite all of the trades they made last week. Once Daniel exits, the Halos' pen should silence the Yankees' bats. New York's bullpen concerns me, but I'm not too intimidated by the current makeup of L.A.'s lineup.
I'll gladly fade 87% of the public here and suggest an under play.
Pick: Under 9
