A topsy-turvy series comes to an end on Thursday afternoon when the Los Angeles Angels (7-4) and Tampa Bay Rays (5-6) play their series finale at George M. Steinbrenner Field. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET on FanDuel Sports Sun/West.
The Rays took a thriller in Game 2 against the Angels after a devastating loss in the series opener. Now, we have the rubber match with Jose Soriano taking the ball for the Angels and Zack Littell opposing him for the Rays.
Can the Angels win their third series in a row to start the season, or will the Rays get back to .500? Find my Angels vs Rays prediction for Thursday, April 10, below.
My Angels vs Rays Prediction
- Angels vs Rays picks: Angels Moneyline
My Angels vs Rays best bet is the Angels moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Angels vs Rays Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -108o / -112u | +110 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8 -108o / -112u | -130 |
Angels vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| Jose Soriano (LAA) | Stat | Zack Littell (TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 3.65/2.77 | ERA /xERA | 4.15/2.79 |
| 4.12/2.72 | FIP / xFIP | 2.99/3,57 |
| 0.97 | WHIP | 0.92 |
| 19.6% | K-BB% | 16.3% |
| 61.5% | GB% | 43.2% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 69 |
| 148 | Location+ | 134 |
Sean Paul’s Angels vs Rays Preview
Angels Betting Preview: Are Paris & Soriano for Real?
Dare I say… are the Angels back?
I'm not sure what qualifies as back, but just putting together a competitive season is a start, and the Angels are 7-4 so far.
The Angels offense looks the best that it's looked in years. Just the presence of Mike Trout, a surefire HOF'er makes a real difference. While a 103 wRC+ isn't MVP-caliber Trout, he's caught fire lately with an OPS over 1.000 in his past seven games.
Trout will only get better and the Angels have the 15th best wRC+ in the sport at 97. That should give Angels fans optimism that they could finish around that — if not better in wRC+.
The main culprit for the Angels' offensive success is the surprising Kyren Paris, who has four homers and five stolen bases in 10 games. Who knows if Paris is just hot or if he's a legitimate weapon, but right now, he brings a different element as a power bat with speed.
The Angels have hoped for years that the fireballing Jose Soriano could separate himself as a top-end rotation option. So far, his ERA sits at 3.65 with a 4.12 FIP — his xERA is 2.77 and xFIP is 2.72.
The expected stats indicate Soriano is due for positive regression. Plus, his K/9 is 10.22 compared to 7.73 last season; his HR/9, however, is up to 1.46 from 0.72.
I'm not worried about the homers since Soriano is a sinker-baller and he's never been a home run guy.
Rays Betting Preview: Skepticism Aplenty
Zack Littell has developed into a very reliable innings-eater type for the Rays.
Nothing Littell does is flashy. He throws 91 mph on average, strikes out batters at a 6.92 K/9 … but manages to get outs. The 31-year-old has a 4.15 ERA with a 2.79 xERA and 2.99 FIP.
Conversely, Littell has a 69 Stuff+, which showcases he's more of a pitcher than a stuff guy. He also cut his HR/9 from 1.27 to 0.69.
I think Littell is due to give up some homers, as he ranks in the 39th percentile in hard-hit rate and 51st in average exit velocity. Couple that with Littell generating nearly 40% of his outs via the fly ball and he'll eventually give up bombs.
The Rays are truly an enigma. You'd expect a team with just eight (8) home runs to be worse than 21st in isolated power. Maybe that'll lead to more homers in the future. The Rays hit two in Wednesday's win over the Angels, as Yandy Diaz and Jose Caballero hit their firsts of the season.
While I'm buying stock in the Angels offense, I'll gladly sell some stock in the Rays. Despite walking just 8% of the time with one of the lowest homer totals in baseball, Tampa Bay is 13th with a 107 wRC+.
Tampa Bay plays old-school baseball; it strikes out just 20% of the time and has 15 stolen bases, which ranks sixth in MLB.
The sample sizes are still really small, which increases my skepticism about the Rays offense. Around 30 at-bats is too little to cast judgment on the potential career seasons of Jonathan Aranda, Kameron Misner, Jake Mangum, and Jonny DeLuca (who hit the IL the other day), who each have a wRC+ above 170.
Misner and Aranda are the two I could see being legit hitters in Tampa's future. They're both hitting the cover off the ball, particularly Aranda, whose savant page lights up with red.
Angels vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
I buy into Soriano being more likely to reap the benefits of positive regression than Littell, whose lack of top-end stuff makes him susceptible to unlucky results.
Soriano looks the part of a legitimate top-end arm for the Angels and he has the proper arsenal to limit this overachieving Rays offense.
Pick: Angels Moneyline
Moneyline
As I mentioned above, my bet for this game is the Angels moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
While I like the Angels to win outright, I will be backing them to cover the run line.
Pick: Pass.
Over/Under
Like the cover, I have no play for the over/under.
Pick: Pass
