The New York Yankees will roll out right-hander Gerrit Cole for Game 1 of the 2024 World Series, while the Los Angeles Dodgers will counter with right-hander Jack Flaherty on Friday at Dodger Stadium.
I'll be targeting two player props, plus a side, for my World Series parlay and MLB picks for Dodgers vs Yankees Game 1.
World Series Parlay: SGP for Dodgers vs Yankees Game 1
- Jack Flaherty Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
- Anthony Volpe Under 0.5 Hits (+115)
- Dodgers Moneyline (-125)
Parlay Odds: +375 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Dodgers vs. Yankees Parlay Pick #1
Flaherty should serve as a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 28 regular season starts, the right-hander posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong, as Flaherty ranked in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate. With that said, his greatest attribute was the ability to retire hitters via punchout.
Flaherty ranked in the 72nd percentile in chase rate, 91st percentile in whiff rate and 90th in strikeout rate.
Dating back to the regular season, he has recorded at least five strikeouts in 24 of his past 29 starts.
Dodgers vs. Yankees Parlay Pick #2
If we are backing a strong performance from Flaherty, then a correlated outcome would be for some hitters to struggle for New York. Enter Anthony Volpe, who is one of the worst batters in the Yankees' lineup.
He posted a .243 BA this season, and his analytics are even worse. Volpe ranked in the bottom-third of the league in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The shortstop also ranked in the bottom half of the league in both chase and strikeout rates, which makes him a bad matchup against Flaherty. Subsequently, Volpe is 0-2 against the right-hander with a strikeout.
Speaking of right-handers, Volpe's BA dropped even further when facing them this season.
Dodgers vs. Yankees Parlay Pick #3
If we are backing Flaherty while simultaneously fading a Yankees hitter, then another correlated outcome would be for the Dodgers to win this game. Not only does Los Angeles play in front of its home crowd in Game 1, but this roster features far more World Series experience than New York's.
Observations aside, the numbers also side with the Dodgers. This season, they outranked the Yankees in BA, OBP, SLG, wOBA and OPS.
Not only does the hitting edge go to Los Angeles, but the pitching edge does as well. Flaherty outranks Cole in ERA, WHIP, xERA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
The same is true with the relief staffs, considering that the Dodgers' bullpen edges New York's in ERA.
