The Los Angeles Dodgers (81-54) and Arizona Diamondbacks (76-59) will meet at Chase Field on Saturday evening. Opening pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET from Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks are five games back of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West after falling 10-9 on Friday night.
Let's preview the game and get to my Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction, including a MLB pick on a Corbin Carroll player prop.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction
- Dodgers vs Diamondbacks pick: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
My Dodgers-Diamondbacks pick is Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+125), where I see value at a line of +125. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-132 | 9.5 +102 / -124 | -1.5 +116 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+112 | 9.5 +102 / -124 | +1.5 -140 |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gavin Stone (LAD) | Stat | RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-5 | W-L | 4-0 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.33/3.92 | ERA /xERA | 3.98/5.18 |
| 3.90/4.06 | FIP / xFIP | 4.55/4.32 |
| 1.21 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 13.6% | K-BB% | 13.4% |
| 43.2% | GB% | 42.6% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 103 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin’s Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Don't Sleep On Miguel Rojas
The Dodgers will enter the final month of the regular season in dominant form and now hold the best record in the league, as everybody expected entering the year. Entering today's matchup they have no position players on the IL, and will provide a tall task for Merrill Kelly.
In the month of August the Dodgers have hit to a wRC+ of 113 against right-handed pitching. They hold a hard-hit rate of 37.2% in that span (second in MLB), and hold a league leading 23.2% line drive rate.
Shohei Ohtani has stolen most of the headlines with his recent play, but an underrated storyline among the Dodgers lineup right now is the red-hot play of Miguel Rojas at the plate. Rojas has hit .345 in the month of August, with an xBA of .328, and strikeout rate of just 6%.
Gavin Stone enters this matchup in solid form with underlying results that are comparable to his body of work over the entirety of the season. Over his last 38 and 2/3 innings pitched he holds an xFIP of 3.86, a 41% hard-hit rate, and an xBA of .256. He has allowed a slug-rate of .406 on the road, with an xFIP of 4.34.
Lefties have actually fared worse than righties versus Stone this season (.339 slug-rate), however that could be due to change based on their 4.17 xFIP.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: The Hottest Lineup in Baseball
Despite spending the entire month without Christian Walker, and nearly two weeks without Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks lineup has been the hottest unit in baseball by some margin in August. They have hit to a wRC+ of 134 with an OPS of .850. The gap widens if you're looking at splits specific to RHP, as they hold a wRC+ of 145 with an OPS of .889. They own the top K/BB ratio in baseball in that span by a wide margin.
Corbin Carroll trending into top form after a horrid start to the season has helped cover up for Walker, and more recently Marte's absences from the lineup. Since the All-Star break, Carroll holds an OPS of 1.032 across 110 PA's versus RHP. His 48.1% hard-hit rate in that span is fourth-highest among batters with over 100 PA's, and he has struck out only 17.3% of the time.
Over the past 14 days, Carroll has put 50% of his swings in play with a hard-hit rate of 60%. He holds an xBA of .330 in that span. He also holds an .833 OPS in six career AB's against Stone.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Bet on Corbin Carroll
Despite spending much of the month with a number of excellent bats missing from the lineup, the Diamondbacks still hold the best splits against right-handed pitching by a considerable margin. Stone hasn't been as effective away from Dodger Stadium, and is allowing a slightly higher than league average slug-rate on the road.
The Diamondbacks and the over would be my leans in terms of sides and totals in this matchup based on the idea that Arizona could hit Stone well. The price is not quite there on Arizona though, as backing Kelly versus a red-hot Dodgers lineup at +112 isn't overly enticing.
I see the most value backing Carroll to continue his incredible stretch of play versus Stone. The splits work in Carroll's favor, and he will have a better than average chance of getting five PA's in this matchup. Anything better than +115 is worthy of a bet on Carroll to record over 1.5 total bases.
Moneyline History
| Dodgers | D-Backs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81-54 | 76-59 |
| Home | 45-23 | 38-29 |
| Away | 35-30 | 38-30 |
| Favorite | 75-42 | 41-25 |
| Underdog | 5-10 | 34-33 |
Over/Under
| Dodgers | D-Backs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 70-60-3 | 75-55-5 |
| Home | 39-27-2 | 41-25-1 |
| Away | 31-33-1 | 34-30-4 |
| Favorite | 64-50-3 | 39-26-1 |
| Underdog | 6-9 | 35-28-4 |
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- 77% of the bets and 73% of the money are on the Dodgers on the moneyline.
- 75% of the bets and 65% of the money are on the over.
- 66% of the bets and 74% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last five games
- The Dodgers are 30-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of the Dodgers last five games
- The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten games on the road
Diamondbacks Betting Trends
- The Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last five games.
- The Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Diamondbacks last five games.
- The total has gone OVER in 41 of the Diamondbacks last 67 games at HOME.
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Weather Forecast
