Dodgers vs Braves Prediction & Moneyline Pick for Sunday Night Baseball

The Los Angeles Dodgers (87-61) and Atlanta Braves (81-67) have the primetime game on Roberto Clemente Day as they play the third game of their series on Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

It's been a lousy weekend for the Dodgers. They've dropped both games to the Braves and perhaps most importantly, learned that All-Star right-hander Tyler Glasnow is likely out for the season with an elbow sprain. On the postseason front, their lead in the NL West over the San Diego Padres has dwindled to 3 1/2 games. As for the Braves, they enter Sunday tied with the New York Mets for the third NL wild-card spot.

Find the latest Sunday Night Baseball odds — plus my Dodgers vs Braves prediction and moneyline pick — for Sunday, September 15, below.

Dodgers-Braves Predictions

• Dodgers-Braves picks: Braves Moneyline (-106 | Play to -115)

My Dodgers-Braves prediction is on Braves Moneyline, where I see value at -106 odds. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Sunday, Sept. 15

7:10 p.m. ET

ESPN

Dodgers Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-108	8.5 -118o / -102u	-1.5 +160

Braves Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-112	8.5 -118o / -102u	+1.5 -192

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

• Dodgers-Braves Moneyline: Dodgers -108 | Braves -112
• Dodgers-Braves Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-118o / -102u)
• Dodgers-Braves Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+160) | Braves +1.5 (-192)

Dodgers-Braves Preview, Prediction

Dodgers Betting Preview: LA Needs More from Walker Buehler

It's been a forgettable stretch for the Dodgers, who have now dropped four of their last five and are in danger of losing back-to-back series to the Cubs and Braves. Their bullpen has taken a step back with a 4.38 ERA in the last two weeks while the starting pitchers on this team have recorded a league-worst 7.04 ERA over that span.

The chances that things turn around on Sunday with Walker Buehler on the hill are quite slim. Whether it's been down in the minors, where he twice worked his way back from injury, or now in the big leagues, the 30-year-old righty has left much to be desired. Buehler's control has been a disaster since returning to the rotation in mid-August, walking over 10% of the batters he's faced in five starts, and he's produced a .286 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and .467 Expected Slugging (xSLG).

These are significantly worse than his numbers in his first healthy stint this season, and should give bettors little hope of a turnaround. On top of that, he's now allowed two home runs in each of his last two outings and is coming off a start in Chicago where he allowed five runs to mark his second-worst outing of the year.

The only good news here for the Dodgers is that their offense remains just outside the top five in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a solid .181 Isolated Power (ISO) and low 17.1% strikeout rate, but they're still not walking as much as we'd expect and they've also mustered just three runs in this series.

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Braves Betting Preview: Charlie Morton in Fine Form

It's not as if Charlie Morton is a great pitcher, either, but it seems he's been a different man ever since allowing eight earned runs against the Brewers in early August.

In six starts since, he's worked to a tidy .371 xSLG in a drastic improvement over his season-long mark of .412, which comes in six points higher than average. He hasn't seen much of a change in terms of his batted-ball profile with a marginal difference in his ground-ball rate, but he's brought his hard-hit rate down to 36% to give him a better chance of pitching to contact.

Walks have been a concern for Morton, whose rate of free passes is now at 9.5% over this span and at 9% for the season, but with the Dodgers growing impatient at the dish and swinging away, it may not be as tricky of a matchup as we think. He did limit L.A. to two walks over six strong innings of two-run ball back in May in his only meeting with Sunday's opponent.

With Morton and a Braves bullpen that owns a spicy 2.27 ERA in the last two weeks, the onus shouldn't be on the offense to do all that much. That's good news, because prior to this Dodgers series hits and runs were incredibly hard to come by for an injury-riddled team.

Atlanta's hitting just .233 over the last two weeks with a meek .125 ISO, but it's flashed strong showings in the strikeout and walk categories, which generally will net good results over time. That leads me to believe the recent results may be sustainable.

Dodgers-Braves Prediction, Odds & Moneyline Betting Analysis

L.A.'s been squarely based around power in the last two weeks as it continues to swing the bat a great deal in an effort to do even more damage. That should help Morton limit the baserunners here, given he's been excellent in suppressing power but has struggled with walks.

This offense, meanwhile, looks to be a formidable side with a walk rate over 9% in the last two weeks and a strikeout rate just over 20%. We touched on Buehler's control issues, which have only gotten worse, and the incredibly high expected numbers off the righty should help the Braves right into another great offensive night.

With the Dodgers' bullpen falling apart a bit, this is going to set up incredibly poorly for the visitors. I think there's a great deal of value on the Braves at this number at home.

Pick: Braves ML (-106)

Moneyline

We've tracked some sharp action coming in on the Braves, while there's been big money on the Dodgers to take home the third game of this series. Unsurprisingly, there's been very little movement in this market.

Pick: Braves ML (-106)

Run Line (Spread)

The Braves have now hit the run line in three of their last four, twice as favorites, while the Dodgers have done so just one time in their last five. Atlanta's only been the underdog at home four times this year, but have hit the run line in three of those contests, and as underdogs in general are 16-10 against the spread.

Over/Under

The over has now hit in four of the last five Dodgers games, but over the last 13 Braves games it's hit just three times. The under has cashed in just 45.1% of L.A.'s games, but has hit 49.3% of the time on the road and in 50% of games played as underdogs.

• 59% of the bets but just 24% of the money is on the Braves moneyline.
• 69% of the bets and 73% of the money is on the Dodgers to cover the run line (-1.5).
• 91% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the over (8.5).

Dodgers Betting Trends

• Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Dodgers are 33-39 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Dodgers' last 5 games

Braves Betting Trends

• Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
• Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Braves are 37-38 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Braves' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 22 of Braves' 73 last games at home

Dodgers-Braves Key Injuries

Dodgers Injuries

Braves Injuries

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