The 2025 MLB season gets underway on Tuesday, March 18, when the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs face off in the first game of the Tokyo Series. First pitch from the Tokyo Dome is scheduled for 6:10 a.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX, SportsNet LA, and Marquee Sports Network.
Dodgers vs Cubs odds (via BetMGM) have the Dodgers as -160 moneyline favorites and the Cubs as +135 underdogs. The over/under is 8 runs (-105o / -115u). The Dodgers are +105 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Cubs are -125 to cover the spread (+1.5).
Find my Dodgers vs Cubs predictions and prop picks in my Tokyo Series Preview for Tuesday, March 18, below — plus the latest public betting trends, injury reports (including the latest on Mookie Betts), lineups, probable starting pitchers and more.
Dodgers vs Cubs Predictions
- My Dodgers vs Cubs picks: Cubs Moneyline +135; bet to +122 | Over 7.5 (-110); bet to -115
I projected the Dodgers as -113 favorites (53.1% implied) for Tuesday's matchup, and I set the total at 8.12 runs. My Dodgers vs Cubs best bets are on the Cubs moneyline and the game total over 7.5. Check our MLB odds page to find the best odds.
My projections for every regular season MLB game are available and will update after lineups in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. This projection is before official lineup confirmation and umpire announcements. Once that information becomes available, I will update my projection in both the Action App and the Projection Hub.
Dodgers vs Cubs Odds, Predictions, Best Bets
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8 -105o / -115u | -160 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8 -105o / -115u | +135 |
- Dodgers vs Cubs Moneyline: Dodgers -160, Cubs +135
- Dodgers vs Cubs Over/Under: 8 runs (-105o / -115u)
- Dodgers vs Cubs Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+105), Cubs +1.5 (-125)
- Dodgers vs Cubs Best Bets: Cubs Moneyline & Over 7.5 (available at FanDuel)
Dodgers vs Cubs Preview: Probable Pitchers, Lineups
A pair of Japanese pitchers will start a season-opening game together for the first time in MLB history, as three-time Sawamura Award winner Yoshinobu Yamamoto faces his 2023 WBC teammate, Shota Imanaga, who finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year and fifth in NL Cy Young voting last season.
The Cubs received a boost in their chances for both Tokyo Series games on Sunday when the Dodgers announced that Mookie Betts would miss the series due to illness. The Dodgers are also down several key relievers (Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, Brusdar Graterol, Michael Grove, Edgardo Henriquez) and have another starting rotation on IL to begin the season.
The Cubs are currently without regular second baseman Nico Hoerner.
Overall (if Betts were healthy), I'd project these offenses about where they finished last season; the Dodgers posted a 123 wRC+ in the second half of 2024 (projected 125 wRC+ for 2025 with Betts healthy), while the Cubs finished at 107 in the second half of the year (projected 106 wRC+ for 2025 without Hoerner). By swapping Betts for Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers trade some offense for defense, but Chicago remains the better defensive team.
The Cubs have two elite, up-the-middle defenders in including Dansby Swanson (first among shortstops in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average over the past two years) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (97th percentile in range, 96th percentile in arm strength, 99th percentile in sprint speed), who finished seventh among center fielders in DRS (+11) last season, despite ranking 11th in innings played at the position.
The Cubs also swap in an elite corner outfielder in Kyle Tucker (+7 DRS in 2024, +29 since 2021; sixth amongst all outfielders) for DH Seiya Suzuki (career -1 DRS), who has struggled to make routine plays at times.
Conversely, the Dodgers have to use Michael Conforto (-5 DRS, -6 OAA the past two seasons, 24th percentile in sprint speed) in a corner rather than at DH, and eventually putting Betts (+23 Outfield DRS since 2021, 14th amongst OF) back at shortstop (+3 DRS, -4 OAA in 2024) weakens both their defensive outfield and middle infield.
Both teams finished in the top five in baserunning value last season, but the Cubs also project as the slightly better team on the basepaths for this season.
While the starting pitchers had comparable indicators last season (Yamamoto missed several months with a triceps strain), and Imanaga posted better pitch modeling metrics, all projection systems prefer Yamamoto, who is five years younger, going forward. Both tossed 75 pitches in their last spring start and should be primed for roughly 90 pitches and five innings on Tuesday.
Yamamoto's highest projected FIP for 2025 (projected low of 3.24 from ZIPS, high of 3.54 from Steamer) is still lower than Imanaga's most optimistic 2025 outlook (projected range of 3.65 to 4.13). I agree with the projection market that Justin Steele (projected range of 3.38 to 3.62) — who will throw on Wednesday — is the Cubs' best starting pitcher, not Imanaga.
Imanaga has a unique fastball shape and throws a devastating splitter, but hitters seemingly have an easier time against him the more they see him, and the long ball should be a persistent issue. Imanaga permitted a 45% fly-ball rate last season, but his HR/FB rate jumped from 1.11 HR/9 in the first half to 1.77 in the second half; he benefitted partly from the wind blowing in during several early-season starts.
Yamamoto seemed to get consistently ambushed early in outings before settling in. Still, with a ground-ball rate near 48%, he should suppress homers, if anything (0.7 HR/9 in 2024), after severely limiting the long ball in Japan (career 0.4 HR/9).
Yamamoto rates as a top-15 pitcher heading into his sophomore season, while Imanaga ranks closer to a top-35 or top-40 talent. Imanaga offers superior command, but Yamamoto has more ways to get opposing hitters out and can limit homers.
The difference between the two starters, in terms of a projected ERA (fourth-tenths of a run), is comparable to the difference in expected talent between these two bullpens (as currently constructed).
Despite missing several key bullpen arms, having a well-rested Tanner Scott (2.96 xERA, 117 Stuff+ in 2024) and Kirby Yates (1.86 xERA, 97 Pitching+) alongside Blake Treinen (2.41 xERA, 109 Pitching+) gives the Dodgers' bullpen the three best relief arms in this matchup. They also have four lefties to combat Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the middle of the Cubs' order, but there are depth concerns beyond their top five arms beyond the three listed, plus Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda.
I also have concerns about new Cubs closer Ryan Pressly, who has seen a three-year decline in xERA (2.62, 3.61, 3.97) and K-BB% (28.6%, 21.6%, 16.4%) . Still, I have high hopes for Tyson Miller (3.41 xERA, 116 Pitching+), Porter Hodge (2.63 xERA, 97 Pitching+), and Nate Pearson (110 Stuff+) as breakout candidates.
I like the depth additions of Ryan Brasier (3.46 xERA, 3.37 botERA) and Caleb Thielbar (career 3.69 xFIP vs. lefties) to bring a league-average bullpen from 2024 into the top 10 this year. Still, Thielbar is their only lefty reliever, which could pose an issue against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy in the late innings.
Tokyo Dome Park Factor & Player Prop Picks
The Tokyo Dome plays around 5% higher than a major league average ballpark, with shallow power alleys (360 feet to left- and right-center field) compared to a typical MLB park (usually 375 feet to the alleys), and 13-foot walls to accommodate the shorter distance.
With less ground to cover, outfielders reduce the number of singles (three-year average factor of .94 or -6%) and triples (three-year average of 0.76 or -24%) compared to an average NPB venue.
As a result, while the park has returned an above-average run-scoring park factor of 1.07 or +7% on average since 2017 (-3% in 2025, +4% in 2024, +2% in 2022, +18% in 2021, neutral in 2020, +19% in 2019, -2% in 2018, +6% in 2017), it is mainly driven by a high home run factor of 1.23, or +23% on average over the same span (+13% in 2024, +17 in 2023,+16% in 2022, +28% in 2021, +10% in 2020, +38% in 2019, +11% in 2018, +28% in 2017).
Therefore, I project value on several home run props for Tuesday's matchup. After looking at the spray charts of the hitters, I think Kyle Tucker and Will Smith have an increased probability of hitting an opposite-field home run (or double).
No hitter put the ball in the air more to the opposite field than Tucker (29.3%) last season, and Will Smith (23.7%, 29th) was the highest-ranking member of the Dodgers. Typically, increasing your Pull Air% is the best way to increase power, but the unique dimensions of this ballpark should increase production to the opposite field.
Smith was lined as high as +525 (16% implied) to hit a home run; I'd set that prop closer to +480 (17.2% implied) in this park, assuming his true talent is around 21 homers per 550 plate appearances.
Tucker's peak projection for 2025 is 31 HRs in 640 plate appearances, but he paced closer to 43 last season while showing improved plate discipline (near 5% increase in walk rate). Even assuming Tucker plays closer to the 30 HR pace this season, I'd still set his odds for Tuesday near 20% (projected +407) , and he's listed as high as +540 (15.6% implied).
I'm tempted by either player to hit a double or to clear 1.5 Total Bases, too, for when they inevitably clank one off the top of the 13-foot wall.
Smith's homer prop dropped from +525 to +470 since open, while Tucker has moved down from +600; at current numbers, I strongly prefer the latter, given Tucker's 40-homer upside for 2025.
I'd give both Smith and Tucker more than a 50% chance to clear 1.5 Total Bases, compared to average odds of roughly 45% and 43% in the betting market.
Prop Picks: Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+540, 0.05 at FanDuel); bet to +465 | Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, 0.1u at BallyBet); bet to +100 | Will Smith, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+128, 0.1u at BetRivers); bet to +110
Dodgers vs Cubs Lines & Betting Analysis: Moneyline & Over/Under
I projected the Dodgers as -113 favorites (53.1% implied) for Tuesday's matchup and I set the total at 8.12 runs.
This projection is before official lineup confirmation and umpire announcements. Once that information becomes available, I will update my projection in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and the Projections Hub.
Bet the Cubs down to +122 (45% implied) at nearly a 2% edge compared to my projected price (+113, 46.9% implied) and play the Over 7.5 to -115.
The total opened at 8.5 and went as low as 7.5 after the Betts news. If the total floats back towards 8.5, I would consider betting Under 8.5 at -105.
Pick: Cubs ML (+136, 0.75u at DraftKings); bet to +122 | Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u at BetRivers); bet to -115
Dodgers vs Cubs Betting Trends
- 75% of the bets and 76% of the money are on the Dodgers moneyline
- 71% of the bets and 62% of the money are on the total to go OVER
- 76% of the bets and 62% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line (-1.5)
Dodgers vs Cubs Tokyo Series Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Tokyo Dome in Bunkyō, Japan |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 18 |
| Time: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX; SportsNet LA; Marquee Sports Network |
Dodgers vs Cubs Injuries
Dodgers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| SS/OF Mookie Betts | Illness (OUT) |
| RHP Michael Kopech | Right forearm tightness (OUT) |
| RHP Edgardo Henriquez | Left metatarsal (OUT) |
| RHP Evan Phillips | Rotator cuff (OUT) |
Cubs Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 2B Nico Hoerner | Right flexor tendon (OUT) |
| RHP Javier Assad | Left oblique (OUT) |
