The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs are set to play the finale of the MLB Tokyo Series on Wednesday, March 19. First pitch from the Tokyo Dome is scheduled for 6:10 a.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on FS1, Marquee Sports Network and SportsNet LA.
This game marks the MLB debut of 23-year-old right-hander Roki Sasaki, who signed with the Dodgers over the offseason. Sasaki was electric in Spring Training, striking out seven over seven scoreless innings with just three hits allowed. The Cubs counter with left-hander Justin Steele, who was limited to 134 2/3 innings in 2024 due to a forearm injury, following a fifth-place Cy Young finish in 2023.
Find my Dodgers vs Cubs predictions, picks and props for Wednesday below, in additional to the latest MLB odds, public betting trends, injury reports (including the status of Freddie Freeman) and Tokyo Series viewing information.
Dodgers vs Cubs Predictions
- Dodgers vs Cubs picks: Cubs Moneyline +135; bet to +125 | Under 8.5 (-115); bet to 8 (+100)
I project the Dodgers as -117 favorites (52.8% implied) for Wednesday's matchup and set the total at 7.8 runs. My Dodgers vs Cubs best bets are on the Cubs moneyline and the game total Under 8.5. Check our MLB odds page to find the best odds.
These projections assume that Freddie Freeman (rib discomfort) will return to the Dodgers lineup. If Freeman does not play (and the Dodgers use the same lineup as Tuesday), I would set their projection at -111 and lower the game total to 7.69. My price targets would adjust to +120 and Under 8 (-105).
My projections for every regular season MLB game are available and will update in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub after lineups are posted. This projection is before official lineup confirmation and umpire announcements. Once that information becomes available, I will update my projection in the Action App and the Projection Hub.
Dodgers vs Cubs Odds, Spread, Best Bets
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -105o / -115u | -150 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -105o / -115u | +125 |
- Dodgers vs Cubs Moneyline: Dodgers -150, Cubs +125
- Dodgers vs Cubs Total: Over/Under 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Dodgers vs Cubs Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+110), Cubs +1.5 (-130)
- Dodgers vs Cubs Best Bets: Cubs Moneyline & Under 8
Dodgers vs Cubs Preview: Probable Pitchers, Lineups
As I stated before Game 1 of the Tokyo Series, both my projections and public projection systems view Justin Steele (projected FIP range of 3.38 to 3.62) as a superior pitcher to his teammate Shota Imanaga (projected FIP range of 3.65 to 4.13).
Steele is a finesse lefty (16th percentile in fastball velocity), who relies on a four-seamer (with cutter-like movement) and slider to avoid barrels (4.8% career) and generate weak contact (89th percentile in average exit velocity, 88th in hard-hit rate), leading to a healthy ground-ball rate (48.7%) and the seventh-lowest home run rate (0.70 HR/9) among starting pitchers over the past three seasons.
Steele didn't face the Dodgers in 2024 and has a relatively limited career sample (44 plate appearances) against their current hitters. He hasn't thrown since March 11, and struggled in his last spring outing (3 2/3 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 0 BB, 3 K), while increasing his pitch count to 62 pitches, compared to 28 and 33 in his prior spring appearances. I'd project Steele for roughly four innings and 80 pitches on Wednesday and would be interested in betting an Under 14.5 Outs props, even though he's typically efficient.
Roki Sasaki — the top pitching prospect on the planet — will make his regular-season MLB debut for the Dodgers after an impressive, but limited, spring (7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K), in which he tossed 49 and 41 pitches across two appearances.
Sasaki features a plus fastball with a wipeout splitter (55% whiff rate in 2024) and has developed a slider (5% usage in 2022, 13% in 2023, 26% in 2024) to round out his arsenal against righties (39% usage rate vs. 18% against lefties). Still, he experienced a velocity dip last season (96.9 mph, down from 98.9 in 2023 and 98.3 mph in 2022) with a corresponding decrease in K-BB% (21.6%, down from 34.2% in 2023 and 30.6% in 2022), and the Dodgers figure to handle him with extreme care.
His projected FIP range for 2025 falls between 3.21 and 4.01, with an average of 3.51 across the publicly available projection systems. Sasaki is immediately a top-25 pitcher in baseball, with top-five upside.
I'd cap Sasaki's usage at around 75 pitches for Wednesday and am also interested in his Under 13.5 outs prop, especially because both teams get extended rest for their bullpens before their next games.
Removing Freeman and Mookie Betts from the Dodgers' lineup significantly lowers their offensive ceiling, but they still remain an above-average unit.
I projected the Dodgers to be about 25% better than league average (125 wRC+) at full health after finishing with a 123 wRC+ over the second-half of 2024. Without Freeman and Betts, I'd still project this lineup for a 115 wRC+ against lefties and would put their righty platoon lineup at a 109 wRC+.
They compensate for some lost offense with improved defense, particularly at shortstop, where Miguel Rojas (4th in Defensive Runs Saved, 6th by Outs Above Average over the past two seasons) is an elite defender, whereas Betts rated as a below-average shortstop (+3 DRS, -4 OAA in 2024).
Rojas and Tommy Edman (career +49 DRS at second base) form a vacuum in the middle infield and can cover in short center for Andy Pages (career -8 DRS) and James Outman (+0). Kiké Hernandez has been a net positive (+2 DRS) in limited experience at first base, which may be an upgrade over Freeman (-9 DRS since 2022).
The Cubs finished with a 107 wRC+ in the second half of the 2024 season and I project their current lineup for a 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Even with the Dodgers playing their best possible defensive lineup, my model shows that Chicago remains the slightly better defensive and baserunning team. To reiterate my points from yesterday, the Cubs have two elite up-the-middle defenders, including Dansby Swanson (1st among shortstops in both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average over the past two years) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (97th percentile in range, 96th percentile in arm strength, 99th percentile in sprint speed), and field above-average or elite defenders at every position except third base, including both corner outfield spots. Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker rank 8th and 9th, respectively (+25 and +24 DRS), among all outfielders over the past three seasons.
Conversely, the Dodgers have to use Michael Conforto (-5 DRS, -6 OAA the past two seasons, 24th percentile in sprint speed) in a corner rather than at DH, and both Teoscar Hernández (-2 DRS since 2022) and Max Muncy (0 OAA in 2024) also rate as neutral or below-average defenders.
Concerning bullpen usage, the Cubs deployed Ben Brown (65 pitches), Eli Morgan (21 pitches), and Ryan Brasier (30 pitches) on Tuesday, while the Dodgers gave much lighter workloads to their relievers (11 pitches for Anthony Banda, 12 for Ben Casparius, 16 for Blake Treinen, 10 for Tanner Scott).
Brown will be unavailable on Wednesday, and I'd imagine the Cubs would like to avoid Brasier after a long inning on Tuesday, but the Dodgers should have their full complement of relievers available behind Sasaki.
The plate umpire is pitcher-friendly Mike Estabrook, who owns a career 228-186-23 record (55%, 4.4% ROI) to the Under.
Tokyo Dome Park Factor & Prop Bets
The Tokyo Dome plays around 5% higher than a major league average ballpark, with shallow power alleys (360 feet to left- and right-center field) compared to a typical MLB park (usually 375 feet to the alleys) and 13-foot walls to accommodate the shorter distance.
With less ground to cover, outfielders reduce the number of singles (three-year average factor of .94 or -6%) and triples (three-year average of 0.76 or -24%) compared to an average NPB venue.
As a result, while the park has returned an above-average run-scoring park factor of 1.07 or +7% on average since 2017 (-3% in 2025, +4% in 2024, +2% in 2022, +18% in 2021, neutral in 2020, +19% in 2019, -2% in 2018, +6% in 2017), it is mainly driven by a high home run factor of 1.23, or +23% on average over the same span (+13% in 2024, +17 in 2023,+16% in 2022, +28% in 2021, +10% in 2020, +38% in 2019, +11% in 2018, +28% in 2017).
No hitter put the ball in the air more to the opposite field than Kyle Tucker (29.3%) last season, and Will Smith (23.7%, 29th) was the highest-ranking member of the Dodgers. Typically, increasing your Pull Air% is the best way to increase power, but the unique dimensions of this ballpark should increase production to the opposite field.
I bet the Over for Tuesday's contest and bet both players to clear 1.5 total bases at +135 and +128, respectively. Their odds are +155 and +115, respectively, for Game 2.
Smith's odds have adjusted, in part, because he moved up in the Dodgers' order with the Freeman scratch. Tucker's odds have increased because he's likelier to face several of the Dodgers' four left-handed relievers after a couple of opportunities against Sasaki.
Smtih's home run prop improved to +520 for Game 2 since Steele is much more difficult to barrel than Imanaga. Conversely, Tucker's home run odds have lowered to +470, despite his total base odds improving. I'd lean to Tucker Over 1.5 (+155) if anything.
Still, considering I bet the Under on Wednesday and expect more aggressive bullpen usage than you'd typically see in a regular season game — with both pitchers entering off limited spring work and both teams having additional rest before their next game — I'd pass on both players.
However, I would look to bet Under 14.5 Outs for Steele (-120 at DraftKings) and 13.5 for Sasaki where lines are available.
Prop Picks: Roki Sasaki, Under 14.5 Outs (-120, 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to 13.5 (-110) | Justin Steele, Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-130, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to -140
Dodgers vs Cubs Betting Analysis: Moneyline; Over/Under
I projected the Dodgers as -117 favorites (52.8% implied) for Wednesday's matchup, and I set the total at 7.8 runs. I would bet the Cubs at +125 (44.4% implied) or better, and play Under 8.5 to -118 or Under 8 at plus money.
This projection is before official lineup confirmation and umpire announcements. Once that information becomes available, I will update my projection in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and the Projections Hub.
These projections assume that Freddie Freeman (rib discomfort) will return to the Dodgers lineup; if Freeman does not play (and the Dodgers use the same lineup as Tuesday), I would set their projection at -111, and lower the game total to 7.69. My price targets would adjust to +120 and Under 8 (-105).
Pick: Cubs ML (+135, 0.5u at BetMGM); bet to +125 | Under 8.5 (-115, 0.5u at BetMGM); bet to -118 or 8 (+100)
Dodgers vs Cubs Betting Trends
- 73% of the bets and 78% of the money are on the Dodgers moneyline
- 72% of the bets and 55% of the money are on the total to go over
- 70% of the bets and 73% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the spread (-1.5)
Dodgers vs Cubs Tokyo Series Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time
| Location: | Tokyo Dome in Bunkyō, Japan |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 19 |
| Time: | 6:10 a.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX; SportsNet LA; Marquee Sports Network |
Dodgers vs Cubs Injuries
Dodgers Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 1B Freddie Freeman | Left rib (scratched on Tuesday) |
| SS/OF Mookie Betts | Illness (OUT) |
| RHP Michael Kopech | Right forearm tightness (OUT) |
| RHP Edgardo Henriquez | Left metatarsal (OUT) |
| RHP Evan Phillips | Rotator cuff (OUT) |
Cubs Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 2B Nico Hoerner | Right flexor tendon (OUT) |
| RHP Javier Assad | Left oblique (OUT) |
