The Los Angeles Dodgers (71-50) and Milwaukee Brewers (68-52) wrap their four-game series on Thursday afternoon at American Family Field, with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The Brewers held on for a 5-4 victory over the Dodgers to snap a three-game losing streak yesterday.
The latest Dodgers vs. Brewers odds (via FanDuel) for Thursday list the Dodgers as -144 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-115o / -105u).
Jack Flaherty will take the mound for Los Angeles while Milwaukee is set to hand the ball to Tobias Myers. In two starts as a member of the Dodgers, Flaherty has pitched to a 3.09 ERA and has racked up 17 strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings. Myers also enters in fine form; he sports a 1.21 ERA over his last 29 2/3 innings (five starts).
Let's break down Thursday's series finale below and offer my Dodgers vs Brewers prediction — you can also find the latest MLB odds for this game and a head-to-head advanced stats breakdown of Flaherty and Myers.
Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 9 -108 / -112 | -1.5 +128 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9 -108 / -112 | +1.5 -154 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Dodgers-Brewers: Duel Incoming?
| RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) | Stat | RHP Tobias Myers (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 2.97 / 3.02 | ERA /xERA | 2.79 / 1.08 |
| 3.12 / 2.58 | FIP / xFIP | 4.12 / 4.01 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 27.6% | K-BB% | 16% |
| 42.3% | GB% | 38.9% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 104 | Location+ | 101 |
Tony Satori's Dodgers vs Brewers Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Trust Jack Flaherty?
Flaherty is going to get paid this offseason, whether it be in Los Angeles or somewhere else. The former first-round draft pick has developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 9-5 record with a 2.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as Flaherty ranks in the top-quarter of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and walk rate. This success is likely to continue against Milwaukee, a team he's well familiar with as a former member of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Flaherty is 2-1 with a commanding 1.93 ERA over his past six starts against the Brewers.
Following the right-hander is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA.
While the Dodgers possess one of the best lineups in baseball, it may get off to a slow start considering that not a single member of this team has ever previously faced Myers.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Tobias Myers is Rolling
Meanwhile, Myers has been incredible for Milwaukee this year. The right-hander is 6-5 through 18 appearances on the mound with a commanding 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.
He's been a breakout rookie for the Brewers this season, and his analytics suggest to expect more of the same down the stretch. Myers ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Entering this game in particularly dominant form, Myers has allowed two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts. The rookie boasts a 1.21 ERA over that stretch.
While Los Angeles possesses a strong bullpen, Milwaukee's is even stronger as it ranks second in ERA.
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis: Target the Total
There's little reason to not like the under in this spot. Flaherty and Myers both rank in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
Both bullpens also rank in the top eight of the league in ERA. The only reason that this total is at eight is because this game also features two of the best lineups in baseball.
However, the Dodgers have no experience against Myers while Flaherty has dominated the Brewers over the past couple of years.
Pick: Under 8 (-105 at FanDuel | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline.
While Los Angeles possesses the stronger pitcher and lineup, -144 is just too much juice for my liking against the always-game Brewers.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line.
I like Milwaukee at +1.5, but not with how much juice you must lay in doing so.
Over/Under
Bet the under at eight.
