Mookie Betts returned with a bang on Monday night as he – and Shohei Ohtani – homered in the Los Angeles’ Dodgers (70-49) win over the Milwaukee Brewers (67-51) in the series opener at American Family Field.
Los Angeles is favored over Milwaukee again on Tuesday as Dodgers vs Brewers odds have the Dodgers as -115 moneyline favorites. The over/under is 8.5 — -122 to the over and +102 to the under — as right-handers Gavin Stone and Colin Rea square off on the mound.
Let’s get into my preview for this National League showdown that has postseason seeding implications, plus the latest MLB odds and my Dodgers vs Brewers prediction and first five innings (F5) pick.
Dodgers vs Brewers Odds
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | -1.5 +145 |
| Milwaukee Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -122o / +102u | +1.5 -175 |
Probable Starting Pitchers for Dodgers at Brewers
| RHP Gavin Stone (LAD) | Stat | RHP Colin Rea (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 10-3 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 3.71 / 4.09 | ERA /xERA | 3.38 / 4.75 |
| 4.06 / 4.22 | FIP / xFIP | 4.27 / 4.34 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 12.4% |
| 44.1% | GB% | 41.6% |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 85 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction Preview
Dodgers Preview: Count on Mookie, Shohei & Co.
Stone will take the mound for the Dodgers tonight. The rookie has made the most of his first season in the big league rotation, posting a 3.71 ERA. Stone has an xERA of 4.09 and a SIERA of 4.43 as he's likely been fortunate with his high strand rate of 78.7%.
Stone has a 99 Stuff+, which is just below average, but his strikeout numbers haven't matched up to this. Stone has a 41st-percentile whiff rate but just a 17th-percentile strikeout rate, as he's seemingly lacking that putaway pitch.
Stone doesn’t walk many batters, ranking in the 73rd percentile in walk rate. He's also been great in terms of batted ball metrics, ranking in the 78th percentile in hard-hit rate, 81st percentile in barrel rate and 71st percentile in exit velocity.
The Los Angeles offense has carried the team to this point in the season. The Dodgers rank fourth in wOBA, fourth in OBP, fifth in SLG and third in ISO. They have the second-highest walk rate in the league and strike out at a below-league-average rate.
The Dodgers rank sixth in hard-hit rate, sixth in barrel rate and sixth in exit velocity, as well. These contact quality metrics — combined with the lowest ground-ball rate in the league — have helped them maintain a potent offense this season.
It helps even more that Betts made his return to the lineup last night from injury, giving them even more firepower.
Milwaukee Brewers Preview: Diving Deeper Into Rea
Rea gets the nod for Milwaukee tonight. The 34-year old veteran has a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, but his peripheral numbers tell a different story. He has a 4.75 xERA and 4.35 SIERA on the season as he has both a high strand rate and an abnormally low BABIP for the second year in a row.
Rea ranks in the 49th percentile in ground-ball rate, which may help his BABIP but it’s not extraordinarily high. He ranks in the 22nd percentile in hard-hit rate, 23rd percentile in barrel rate and 13th percentile in exit velocity allowed.
Rea ranks 84th in Stuff+ among 97 pitchers with 100+ innings pitched this season. He's 45th in Location+ and 81st in Pitching+. He has a 64th-percentile walk rate but just a ninth-percentile whiff rate and 27th-percentile strikeout rate.
The Brewers rank 11th in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA this season. They're 20th in ISO and 13th in SLG but second in OBP. Milwaukee has the second-highest walk rate in the league, and it strikes out just barely above league average (13th).
Milwaukee ranks 15th in hard-hit rate, 22nd in barrel rate and 20th in exit velocity. It also hits the ball on the ground 46.1% of the time, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
With these batted ball metrics, I'm surprised that the Brewers' production has been as high as it's been this season, but when you strip away the walks and strikeouts, xwOBACON tells a different story as they rank 17th.
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction: First Five Innings (F5) Spread
Rea has had good results this year, but I don’t view these as being sustainable. He's maintained this ERA despite not getting any strikeouts and allowing hard contact without keeping the ball on the ground at an above average rate.
The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the league, and I believe that they'll be able to do some damage against Rea.
I’m less certain on the other side of this matchup, but I think I give the edge to Stone. The Brewers don’t hit the ball exceptionally hard, and this is an area that Stone has been great in this season.
He also doesn’t walk many batters, which has been a major source of Milwaukee’s offensive output this season.
Since I like both Stone and the Dodgers’ offense, I think that L.A. should be heavier favorites today. My favorite play on this would be taking the Dodgers on the F5 run line at +110, as I believe they'll hold a lead after five innings for the second night in a row.
Pick: Dodgers F5 -0.5 (+110 at DraftKings, Bet to +100)
Moneyline
The Dodgers’ offense is the best unit in this game, and I’ll be looking to back it however I can. Milwaukee does have a bullpen advantage, but I think that Los Angeles will be able to get out to an early lead and hang on in the late innings.
Run Line (Spread)
The Dodgers are 29-29 ATS on the road this season while the Brewers are 30-26 ATS at home.
Just as I like the Dodgers to win this game and lead over the first five innings, I think that there's value in them at +130 on the run line. But with how even this pitching matchup is and the aforementioned bullpen advantage for the Brewers, I prefer just taking the moneyline rather than the full-game run line.
Over/Under
The over is 32-20-4 in Brewers home games this season. American Family Field has a park factor of 98 at night over the last three seasons, but it's gone up to 101 this season, which could be responsible for some of these overs hitting more often.
I don’t have a strong conviction on the total for this game at nine runs, but at plus money, I would lean towards the over. Both offenses are more than capable, and there's downside risk with both of these starting pitchers.
