The Los Angeles Dodgers have returned several key names to their lineup (namely, Mookie Betts), and now they're on a tear with five straight wins heading into the third of four games against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field in Milwaukee on Wednesday.
As L.A. begins to heat up at the dish, the attention will shift to the mound in this one as Walker Buehler returns to the Dodgers rotation after a two-month stay on the injured list, replacing the fallen River Ryan, who's set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Can we expect the veteran to pick up where his stablemates have left off and lead the Dodgers to a sixth consecutive victory and series win, or will Frankie Montas and the Brewers steal this one?
Let's get into the latest MLB odds, my betting preview of this NL showdown and my Dodgers vs Brewers prediction and moneyline pick for Wednesday night.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -1.5 +140 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +1.5 -165 |
Dodgers vs Brewers odds for Wednesday night have the Dodgers as -120 moneyline favorites and the Brewers as +100 underdogs. The over/under is set at 8.5 — -115 to the over and -105 to the under. The Dodgers are +140 to cover the run line at -1.5, while the Brewers are -160 to cover +1.5.
Probable Starters for Dodgers-Brewers
| Buehler (LAD) | Stat | Montas (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 5-8 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 5.84/4.91 | ERA /xERA | 5.10/4.66 |
| 6.07/4.32 | FIP / xFIP | 4.92/4.62 |
| 1.51 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 12.5% | K-BB% | 9.9% |
| 43.5% | GB% | 41.1% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 103 | Location+ | 101 |
How to Watch Dodgers vs Brewers on Wednesday
- Date: Wednesday, Aug. 14
- Venue: American Family Field
- Time: First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET
- TV: MLB Network for out of market viewers. Otherwise, the game can be found on SportsNet LA and Bally Sports Wisconsin.
Weather Forecast for Dodgers-Brewers
Kenny Ducey's Dodgers vs Brewers Preview
Dodgers Betting Preview: Walker Buehler Returns
It's a marvel that Buehler continues to battle injury because it sure doesn't seem like he gets much enjoyment from pitching down in the minor leagues.
The right-hander has now completed two rehab assignments this season, first working his way back from Tommy John surgery in the early part of 2024 before battling a hip ailment just a month and a half into his season. In all, he's made nine starts across A-ball and Triple-A and has posted an unsightly 4.98 ERA, with a whole host of walks and hits charged to his line.
He closed out his most recent stint with five earned runs over 8 2/3 innings this month, walking six with 11 strikeouts, and he will hope to turn things around in his return to the big-league club on Wednesday.
When we last saw Buehler, there wasn't much to get excited about. He limited walks quite well, which went against what we saw down in the minors, but his strikeout rate remains miles away from what we saw earlier in his career when he established himself as one of the best starters in the National League. Worst of all, he's lost the ability to pitch to consistent contact on the ground over his last couple of seasons and that's carried over into his rehab starts.
While Buehler's a mystery on the hill, this Dodgers offense seems to be rounding back into form. Freddie Freeman returned a week ago from personal leave and Mookie Betts was reinserted into the lineup on Monday after missing time due to injury.
Miguel Rojas is also back manning short while Max Muncy doesn't seem far behind, and with all of that L.A. now ranks sixth in wRC+ in the last seven days in a turnaround from the relative mediocrity we'd begun to expect with so many big bats missing. The Dodgers have posted a spicy .219 Isolated Power (ISO) over this stretch and have shored up some issues in the strikeout department, though their walk rate is shockingly low at 7.3%.
Brewers Betting Preview: Frankie Montas Trending Up?
It was pretty difficult to fully flame Buehler given the small sample size at the big-league level this season, but it was equally as hard given he's been bad in just about every area. Well, the task is just as hard with Montas — who remains one of the most disappointing arms in baseball.
The right-hander used to flash the potential to be an above-average strikeout arm, with a sinker that could help him out on contact, but his ability to generate punchouts have declined over the past three seasons and his ground-ball rate has remained middling. His sinker has also been such a liability that he's almost completely abandoned it.
Montas is now a member of the Brewers' so-called "pitching factory," a term used in quotation marks because it's begun to lose a little of its luster with some failed projects in the past two seasons. Still, Montas has begun to pitch a bit differently in two starts with his new club this month, using his fastball considerably more given it's arguably been his best pitch over the course of the year.
The righty has lowered his Expected Batting Average (xBA) to a season-best .226 this season and he has posted his best strikeout rate as well at 27.9%. He did issue four walks last time out against the Braves and yielded nine hits against the Nationals, but he's generally been a bit better across the board in his short time with the Brewers, which makes this test one worth watching.
Offensively, the Brewers have turned things around in the past couple of weeks with a .266 average and sixth-ranked 121 wRC+. They're hitting for considerably more power in this short span with a 25-point increase from their season average in ISO, though they've also struck out at a higher rate. Still, after a pretty tough month of July, this has been great to see.
Dodgers vs Brewers Prediction: Moneyline Underdog Value?
I strive to be objective here to give you the best possible analysis, and I will always pay attention to developing trends. So, it is with those words written that I'll do something I haven't done very much in the past five seasons and project Montas to have a better time in this one than Buehler.
The right-hander has definitely looked like a different man since donning a Brewers uniform, putting forth some perfectly average numbers in two starts — a vast improvement over his recent volatility — and the underlying stats seem to promise even more. It's difficult to strike out the Dodgers, but he'll be throwing his effective four-seamer to a Dodgers team ranked 22nd in run value per 100 fastballs this season and 27th against the pitch over the past two weeks.
On top of that, he's begun pitching to even fewer balls on the ground, which actually may further work in his favor here given the Dodgers' .802 OPS to ground-ballers ranks fourth in baseball while their .722 OPS against fly-ballers is 10th. If he can just limit the walks, something he's been improving upon in each of the last two months, he should find a way to fend off a surging Dodgers lineup.
I'm far less confident in Buehler, who's produced no room for optimism with his recent form and will now attempt to shake off the rust after two months away from the big-leagues. Milwaukee has hit the ball much better of late and should have no issues reaching base against a man sporting a .276 xBA and 4.91 xERA this season.
Go with Milwaukee as slim home dogs.
Pick: Brewers ML (+105 at BetMGM)
Moneyline
The Brewers have been getting some love from the betting public, opening up at +112 and moving down to even money early on Wednesday. The Dodgers may be commanding 72% of the bets and 90% of the money here, but we've tracked some sharp action on Milwaukee to win this one. It's worth noting though, if they do close as underdogs, that the Brewers are just 7-10 this season as home 'dogs.
Run Line (Spread)
The Brewers are just 1-4 to the run line in their last five games, but have covered in 63.6% of games as the underdog, going 35-20 in all. L.A., meanwhile, has hit the run line in four of its last five and is now 25-22 to the spread as a road favorite this year.
Over/Under
The total remains at the opening number of nine runs, and while there was initially some strong movement toward the Over, things have settled back down and now this line seems destined to close at 8.5.
We're tracking sharp action on the Under, which has now cashed in three of the Brewers' last four games after a push on Tuesday. It's also hit in 54.3% of the Dodgers' 47 games where they enter as the road favorite.
