The New York Mets’ magic appears to be running out as the Los Angeles Dodgers secured a blowout win in yesterday's matchup to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The oddsmakers see the Dodgers as -130 road favorites on the moneyline in Game 5, while the total is set for over/under 7.5 runs. Opening pitch from Citi Field is set for 5:08 p.m. ET on FS1.
Down 3-1 in the series, with the Grimace playoff pumpkin-fueled Mets on the brink of elimination, is there still some more magic left for New York to muster? Find out in my preview below, which features my Dodgers vs Mets prediction and my MLB picks for Friday, October 18.
Dodgers vs Mets Prediction
- Dodgers vs Mets pick: Under -7.5 (-115)
My Dodgers vs. Mets best bet is on the under at 7.5 runs, where I see value at -115. The best line is available at DraftKings, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Mets Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +130 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 7.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -155 |
Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 Probable Pitchers
| RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-7 | W-L | 10-3 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.9 |
| 3.17 / 3.51 | ERA /xERA | 2.90 / 4.58 |
| 3.48 / 3.00 | FIP / xFIP | 3.67 / 4.10 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 24% | K-BB% | 10.8% |
| 39.5% | GB% | 50.1% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 102 | Location+ | 98 |
Mike Ianniello’s Dodgers vs Mets Game 5 Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Can They Close Out the Series Tonight?
Los Angeles has outscored the Mets 30-9 in the first four games of this series and will look to close them out at Citi Field on Friday. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy and the rest of the Dodgers have stormed the East Coast with two consecutive blowout wins over the Mets prior to tonight's matchup.
Jack Flaherty gets the ball for the Dodgers in Game 5, after coming out and reminding everyone this season that he is an elite starting pitcher in this league when healthy. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2019 before battling injuries for the next three seasons.
He finally looked like his old self this year, posting a 3.17 ERA in 28 starts between the Tigers and Dodgers. His best attribute is his swing-and-miss stuff. Flaherty uses a fastball, slider, and knuckle curve combination to generate a 10.78 K/9 rate.
Flaherty was dominant in Game 1 of this series, tossing seven scoreless innings and allowing just two hits while striking out six batters.
We all know Los Angeles has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. They scored the second most runs in the league and ranked first in both wOBA and wRC+ during the regular season.
Ohtani led the way for the Dodgers, on the way to a likely unanimous MVP season. Ohtani is having a strange postseason where he is 1-for-23 with 11 strikeouts with nobody on base, but he is 7-for-11 with two home runs and eight RBIs with runners on base. With Ohtani up-and-down, it has been Mookie Betts leading the way at the plate, along with Muncy, who has reached base in 12 consecutive postseason plate appearances, tying Reggie Jackson for the all-time record.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Season on the Line at Home
With their season on the line, the Mets will turn to David Peterson in Game 5. Peterson had the best year of his career, despite starting the season on the injured list and not making his first start until the end of May. After that, he went on to post a 10-3 record with a 2.90 ERA in 21 starts.
He has been utilized out of the bullpen so far this postseason, mostly as a long-innings guy or a piggyback to an opener. Through four outings this postseason, Peterson has allowed just two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings but they both came in his last appearance against these Dodgers.
The concern for Peterson is, while his 2.90 ERA is fantastic, his 4.58 xERA is quite concerning. Opponents have a .332 xwOBA against Peterson and he ranks in the bottom-25% of the league in strikeout rate and hard-hit percentage.
While not as vaunted as the Dodgers offense, New York held its own at the plate just fine. The Mets finished the year top-10 in both wOBA and wRC+ and hit the sixth-most home runs in the league.
Francisco Lindor is obviously the Mets’ best player and has consistently come up big throughout this postseason, but October has also marked the coming out party for Mark Vientos. The 24-year-old is hitting .370 with four home runs and 12 RBIs this postseason.
Dodgers vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Is it okay to admit this NLCS has been pretty boring? All four games have resulted in blowouts, with the closest game being a 4-run win for the Mets in Game 2. I’m betting we will see a more competitive game on Friday, and it starts with the pitching.
Flaherty has been magnificent all season, both for the Tigers and Dodgers. We saw his velocity begin to dip a little bit down the stretch, as he got worn down after a long season, but the week layoff has allowed him to regain his form. Flaherty’s fastball has been averaging 93 miles per hour in his last two starts, back to what we saw from him all season.
He looked dominant in his last start, striking out six across seven scoreless innings. He completely shut down this Mets’ lineup and I am expecting another strong start from Flaherty in Game 5.
After two blowout wins, the Dodgers’ high-leverage relievers should be well-rested, and with an off-day tomorrow, Dave Roberts can afford to have a short leash if somebody gets into trouble.
The same goes for the Mets. We should see all of their top bullpen arms pitch in this game whenever Peterson exits the game. Despite some of Peterson’s concerning expected metrics, it is clear that Carlos Mendoza is well aware of this and limiting Peterson’s exposure. He will likely only pitch 3-4 innings in this one.
As New York’s only left-handed option on Friday, they will look to get Peterson through LA’s key left-handed bets in Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, and Freddie Freeman (if he plays) two or three times before handing it off to the bullpen.
With an off day scheduled for tomorrow, and the Mets’ season on the line, neither manager will hold back in this one. Both will play the matchups and have quick hooks, getting the best pitcher on the mound for the situation.
The first four games have been blowout wins that have all sailed over the total. With New York trying to keep their season alive, and the Dodgers trying to close things out to secure a trip to the World Series, I expect things to tighten up here. We should see a more competitive game that stays under the total today.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Moneyline
I lean the Dodgers here and think they will close out the series but the price is a little too steep for me. I would want closer to -120 to consider it.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass.
Over/Under
Both teams will empty the bullpen's in this one and I like the score to stay under as things tighten up in an elimination game.
Dodgers vs Mets Betting Trends
Dodgers Betting Trends
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games
- Dodgers are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Dodgers' 80 last games at home
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games
- Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home
