The Los Angeles Dodgers go for the sweep against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday afternoon. Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow gets the ball and oddsmakers believe Los Angeles has a great chance at breaking out the brooms at Dodger Stadium.
The Pirates have stumbled lately, losing six games in a row and eight of their last 10 overall. As a result, they are now five games back of an NL wild -ard spot. Left-hander Bailey Falter gets the ball for the Pirates — he'll obviously have a tall task ahead going up against the former Pirate Glasnow.
Oddsmakers have made the Pirates +220 underdogs on the moneyline, with the total set at 8.5 (-104o / -118u). Let's take a deeper dive into my Dodgers vs Pirates prediction and F5 pick for Sunday.
Dodgers vs Pirates Odds, Prediction
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-270 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -1.5 -128 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+220 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | +1.5 +106 |
Probable Starting Pitchers for Dodgers-Pirates
| RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD) | Stat | LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 3.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.54/2.56 | ERA /xERA | 3.87/4.97 |
| 2.83/2.62 | FIP / xFIP | 4.44/4.69 |
| 1.14 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 26.2% | K-BB% | 9.4% |
| 47.6% | GB% | 35.1% |
| 119 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 102 | Location+ | 100 |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction Preview
Pirates Betting Preview: Bucs' Playoff Hopes Dwindling
The Pirates have their hands full on Sunday, and it does not get much tougher than this. They desperately need to turn things around, as their playoff hopes are dwindling by the day.
Southpaw Bailey Falter enters the game with a 3.97 ERA, but there is major regression looming for him. He has an xERA of 4.97, and most of his metrics are dreadful.
Falter ranks in the bottom 15th percentile in the following pitching categories:
- xBA
- xERA
- K%
- Whiff%
- Fastball Velocity
It is a disaster matchup for Falter, against a Dodgers lineup that is starting to heat up over the last couple of days. I have no interest in backing the Pirates here due to Falter's implosion arriving at any moment now.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Glasnow Faces Former Team
Tyler Glasnow gets the ball for the Dodgers and his metrics are the complete opposite of Falter's. As you can tell comparing the pitching matchup in the chart above, his numbers are far and away better than his.
Glasnow has been the subject of misfortune in 2024 thus far, and it's remarkable his numbers are still solid. Glasnow ranks above the 95th percentile in the following pitching metrics:
- xERA
- xBA
- K%
- Extension
His groundball rate has also increased over the last couple of months, so it's clear that runs are hard to come by when he is on the mound. The Pirates hitters are batting .152 lifetime against him over 46 plate appearances.
In one of the worst trades in recent memory, the Pirates are going to get another reminder on Sunday afternoon why they should have never shipped off Glasnow in the first place. I have no concerns about his ability to mow down the lineup, and it'll take a bullpen implosion for the Dodgers to ruin his start.
In limited at-bats against Falter, the Dodgers offense is 11-for-33 against him. Regardless, they should tack on runs against him considering he is bound to implode any day now.
Dodgers vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis: Expect a Low-Scoring Game
I have no faith in the Pirates offense to score runs on Sunday afternoon. They scored one run last night, and I have a feeling they are going to get blanked here too.
I am going to target the F5 Under 4.5, despite Falter's impending implosion on the mound. Even if the Dodgers score four runs early, I think Glasnow's matchup is too strong to worry about the Pirates being a threat offensively.
It's a bit dicey given the circumstances, but I'll rely on Glasnow to cash this ticket for us.
Moneyline
PASS
I have no faith in the Pirates bats to break through against Glasnow. The Dodgers pen is also amongst the league's best, so there is no way I have any interest in backing them. The Dodgers are too steep of an investment, despite the great advantage they have on the mound. No thanks.
Run Line (Spread)
PASS
I would lean towards the Pirates +1.5 +105, but I have too many questions about their offense coming in. It's possible they can take advantage of a few Glasnow mistakes, but there is far too many uncertainties here. I am not thrilled about laying -130 juice for the Dodgers -1.5 either. Their offense has been sketchy at times as of late, despite Falter being due for regression moving forward.
Over/Under
BET
Not only do I like the F5 under here, but I like the full-game under as well. I expect the Dodger to hold up their end of the bargain for the early portion of the game, and I think both bullpens are more than capable of throwing a couple of goose eggs up on the board. Many public bettors expect the game to go under for a second day straight, but I'll fade 95% of the public with a favorable pitching matchup.
