The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres resume a testy National League Division Series on Tuesday night at Petco Park. First pitch for NLDS Game 3 is set for 9:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FS1 — other viewing options include MLB.TV, Fubo and Sling TV.
Walker Buehler gets the ball for the Dodgers in this pivotal game. He’s not who the Dodgers want out there, but a litany of injuries give L.A. no choice. The good news for the Dodgers is star first baseman Freddie Freeman (ankle) is in the Game 3 starting lineup. The Padres counter with Michael King, who is coming off a stellar outing against the Braves in the Wild Card Series.
Dodgers vs Padres odds (via ESPN Bet) have the Padres as -150 moneyline favorites and the Dodgers as +125 underdogs. The over/under is set at 7.5 (-120o / +100u). The Dodgers are -165 to cover the run line (+1.5) and the Padres are +140 (-1.5).
Find out how I’m betting Game 3 below, where you can find my Dodgers vs Padres predictions and picks for Tuesday, October 8.
My Dodgers vs Padres Prediction for Game 3
- Dodgers vs Padres pick: Padres Team Total Over 3.5; -155 (Play to to 4.5)
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet is on the Padres' over, where I see value at -3.5 (-155). The best line is available at BetMGM, but make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Odds, Predictions
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+125 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -165 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-150 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +140 |
- Dodgers vs Padres Moneyline: Dodgers +125, Padres -150
- Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under: 7.5 total runs (-120o / +100u)
- Dodgers vs Padres Run Line: Dodgers +1.5 (-165), Padres -1.5 (+140)
Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Probable Pitchers
| RHP Walker Buehler (LAD) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | W-L | 13-9 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.9 |
| 5.38 / 4.68 | ERA /xERA | 2.95 / 3.54 |
| 5.54 / 4.49 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33 / 3.50 |
| 1.55 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 10.5% | K-BB% | 19% |
| 45.5% | GB% | 40.4% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Dodgers vs Padres Preview Prediction for NLDS Game 3
Dodgers Betting Preview
Dodgers Game 3 Lineup
- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
- Mookie Betts (RF)
- Freddie Freeman (1B)
- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
- Max Muncy (3B)
- Will Smith (C)
- Gavin Lux (2B)
- Tommy Edman (CF)
- Miguel Rojas (SS)
Buehler posted a 5.38 ERA and 4.68 xERA during the regular season. He had an average exit velocity of 88.3 mph with an above average Hard-Hit Rate and Barrel Rate.
He has a strikeout rate of just 18.6% and walk rate of 8.1% — both marks represent career lows since Buehler became a full-time starter in 2018.
In September, Buehler had 4.44 ERA over five starts, and he managed to hold the Padres to only one run in his last appearance against them, but San Diego’s lineup is obviously a handful.
The Dodgers hammered right-handed pitching in September with a 129 wRC+, which was accompanied by an 11.8% walk rate and 18.8% strikeout rate. They have over 10 hitters above a .330 xwOBA in that timeframe.
The Dodgers’ relief staff had a 4.29 xFIP in September with an 8.8% walk rate and strikeout rate a touch above 23%.
They have four arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, so if Buehler struggles, which he has all season, they might have to dig a bit deeper into the bullpen.
Padres Betting Preview
Padres Game 3 Lineup
- Luis Arraez (1B)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)
- Jurickson Profar (LF)
- Manny Machado (3B)
- Jackson Merrill (CF)
- Xander Bogaerts (SS)
- David Peralta (DH)
- Jake Cronenworth (2B)
- Kyle Higashioka (C)
King is clearly the superior starting pitcher in this game.
This year, he had a 2.97 ERA and 3.54 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity was astoundingly low at 85.7 mph, with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 97th percentile and well above average Barrel Rate. His strikeout rate, chase rate and walk rate are also above average — though he holds an 8.7% walk rate.
Like the Dodgers, the Padres lineup can hammer righties. They had a 115 wRC+, 7.3% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate against right-handers in September.
The Padres have seven hitters who have an xwOBA of .300 or better with those parameters in place and four above .370. The top of the lineup — Luis Arraez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado — is potent and should do immense damage against Buehler. On paper, it's a bad matchup for Buehler considering his lack of strikeouts combined with the Friars' ability to make contact.
In relief, San Diego is much better than L.A.
The Padres had a 4.08 xFIP with a 9.5% walk rate and comparable strikeout rate. They also have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, but once King gets through the fifth inning, these arms are much more reliable and should give manager Padres manager Mike Schildt a leg up on Dave Roberts.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Game 3 Betting Analysis
The Padres should get to Buehler early and often. If they can force him out of the game early, they can tack on runs, especially against Los Angeles' middle relievers.
San Diego is especially good with power numbers and contact at the top of the order, which is a nice combination to give Buehler and company issues.
Look for the Padres to score over 3.5 runs. Take them from 3.5 to 4.5.
Pick: Padres Team Total Over 3.5 (Play to 4.5)
Moneyline
I have no play on either side of the moneyline for NLDS Game 3.
Pick: Pass
Run Line (Spread)
Like the moneyline, I am not getting involved with either run line.
Pick: Pass
Over/Under
While I'm on the Padres' team total over, I have no play on the full-game over/under.
Pick: Pass
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The Dodgers are 96-53 (.644) when allowing 5 or more extra-base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .538.
- Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers' last 5 games
Padres Betting Trends
- The totals have gone OVER in the Padres' last three playoff games
- The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres' 80 last games at home
- Michael King has a strikeout rate of 33% vs right-handed batters since last season — tied for second highest among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP– 99th Percentile.
Dodgers vs Padres Game 3 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. |
| Date: | Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | FS1; MLB.TV; Sling TV; Fubo |
