The Los Angeles Dodgers (71-51) are suddenly in need of a win, following up a five-game winning streak with consecutive losses to the Brewers in Milwaukee to head into the weekend just two games in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres in the NL West.
The St. Louis Cardinals (60-61) could use a victory as well after being swept by the Cincinnati Reds, and are set to toss the volatile Miles Mikolas against a Dodgers lineup that is beginning to look a bit more imposing with the return of Mookie Betts.
With L.A.'s pitching plan up in the air, might the Cardinals have a chance to steal this series opener at Busch Stadium? Let's break down the best way to bet this game and get to my Dodgers vs Cardinals prediction and pick for Friday, August 16.
Editor's Note: This Dodgers-Cardinals preview was published before Justin Wrobleski was named Los Angeles' starting pitcher for Friday.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs St Louis Cardinals Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-134 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | -1.5 +114 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+114 | 9.5 -104o / -118u | +1.5 -137 |
Dodgers vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Justin Wrobleski (LAD) | Stat | RHP Miles Mikolas (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 8-9 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.05/5.08 | ERA /xERA | 5.30/4.50 |
| 5.33/4.84 | FIP / xFIP | 4.16/4.26 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 10% | K-BB% | 12.1% |
| 28.1 | GB% | 41.0% |
| 91 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 98 | Location+ | 108 |
Kenny Ducey's Dodgers at Cardinals Preview
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: No Glasnow?
It's anyone's guess what Dave Roberts will decide to do here on the pitching front. This is Tyler Glasnow's turn through the rotation, but Roberts said on Thursday that the team is considering giving the right-hander an extra day of rest — something they've done many times this season.
The issue here is that there's no obvious choice for the Dodgers. They've lost rookie River Ryan to a season-ending injury, which has positioned Landon Knack as the team's de facto sixth starter. He was used for 64 pitches on Tuesday, however, so he appears to be out.
L.A. scratched both Bobby Miller and Justin Wrobleski from their starts down in Triple-A, so either could pitch here, and Roberts did also mention the possibility of a bullpen game — something that's hard to see with Knack, their long-man, likely unavailable and their stable of middle-relief arms quite taxed from the past two days.
We'll wait and see what L.A. decides. Perhaps it will settle on Glasnow starting after all, or maybe Wrobleski will be called upon for the start.
Whatever the case, the Dodgers offense returned Freddie Freeman last week and Mookie Betts followed him on Monday. The Dodgers aren't scorching hot by any means with a 118 wRC+ in the past week, but they will bring a hefty .194 Isolated Power (ISO) over the past week into this one with a much-improved 20.7% strikeout rate.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Mikolas Can Hold His Own
The Dodgers may look like an imposing bunch on paper, but with Betts shaking off the rust and the lineup still rounding into full form, you wouldn't think Mikolas will be all that terrified coming into this start.
The right-hander owns a pretty decent .257 xBA and .317 xwOBA against the current Dodgers, notably holding Jason Heyward at bay to the tune of a .196 xBA in 28 plate appearances and Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith to just two hits in 13 combined at-bats. He's struggled against L.A. earlier in the year, but did hold them to three runs over seven frames last year and presents something of a matchup concern for the visitors.
L.A.'s calling card through the years has been its ability to blend excellent plate discipline with power, so a strike-thrower like Mikolas doesn't afford this team the ability to stun the many high-strikeout arms that are vulnerable to the long ball.
Mikolas has begun pitching to slightly more contact in the air over the past three seasons, so a team ranked seventh in fly-ball rate this year will surely be taking aim at the seats in this one. The issue is that Busch Stadium grades out as one of the hardest parks to hit home runs, and it's also not as if Mikolas is allowing an inordinate number of hard-hit balls this season — he has actually brought that rate down by two points from where it was a season ago.
St. Louis has a bit of a problem in that regard as well, hitting fly balls at the third-highest clip in baseball over the last week of play after being a very ground-ball happy offense all season long. It's failing to do much on contact with a .151 ISO and has struck out over 23% of the time, though it's still managed to hit an acceptable .244 over this time.
Dodgers vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a hard one to handicap given we're not quite sure what the Dodgers will throw at the Cardinals, but I'm cautiously optimistic that St. Louis can find offense given it's still managed to rack up hits even if walks, strikeouts and power have been an issue.
If this is Glasnow going for the Dodgers, I am fully out on the Cardinals — a team striking out at a pretty poor clip over the last week of play and will need to deal with a pitcher who produces a lot of fly balls. Miller, similarly, would be someone I shy away from. Should this be a bullpen game or a Wrobleski start, however, I do think the Cardinals will have the chance to get runners on base against a struggling rookie.
Mikolas should have a surprisingly competent outing here, given pitching to contact at Busch Stadium should be a lot easier than if this start were to come on the road. Betts still doesn't look to be himself right now with high volatility while Shohei Ohtani has fallen into a massive slump, and without much generosity in the walk department the task at hand for the Dodgers will be a somewhat hefty one.
The Dodgers have scored just eight runs over their last two games and have yet to have a real offensive explosion. I like the Cardinals here as home underdogs as a result — with the conditions I've laid out above.
Pick: Cardinals +120
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Moneyline
We've tracked some big money coming in on the Dodgers to win this one with the vast majority of tickets headed towards the road team. Given the uncertainty in the pitching matchup, however, there hasn't been any line movement to speak of here as bettors wait to see what L.A. will do.
The Cardinals, notably, are 12-7 as home underdogs this year.
Run Line (Spread)
St. Louis, as you may expect with that record, is a neat-and-tidy 15-4 to the run line as home underdogs this season, covering by an average of 2.4 runs. As underdogs in general, it has hit the run line in 64.1% of its games with a 41-23 record.
On the road this year, the Dodgers are just 30-31 against the spread.
Over/Under
There's similarly been very little movement in the total, with the price on the Over 9.5 coming up ever so slightly by around 10 cents from the opener. According to our data, 86% of bettors are on the Over while it's accounted for 84% of the cash.
With that said, the trends aren't exactly on their side here. The Under has gone 11-8 in these 19 games in which the Cardinals have been underdogs at home, and it's 25-23-1 when the Dodgers enter as the road favorite. It's also cashed in six of the Cardinals' last 10 games.
