Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis Cardinals Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-105 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -1.5 +154 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-115 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -185 |
The Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals finish off their three-game weekend set with a matinee at Busch Stadium. The first game fell in the Dodgers favor in nail-biting fashion, but the Cardinals made fairly easy work of the Dodgers on Saturday, which should make for an interesting game on Sunday. We'll see a pair of veteran hurlers — surefire Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and multi-time All-Star Sonny Gray for the Cardinals.
The stage is set, so let's get to my Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction.
Dodgers vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 11-7 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 3.50/3.84 | ERA /xERA | 3.93/3.68 |
| 3.01/4.06 | FIP / xFIP | 3.14/2.74 |
| 1.39 | WHIP | to |
| 3.4 | K-BB% | |
| 36.8 | GB% | 44.3 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 102 | Location+ | 103 |
Sean Paul's Dodgers vs Cardinals Preview
Dodgers Betting Preview: L.A. Offense in a Slump
Kershaw looks well past his prime, but the Dodgers need him to find the fountain of youth after a rough few days from the rotation.
Walker Buehler kickstarted the issues with four mediocre innings and was followed by a rough start from Justin Wrobleski. Then, Bobby Miller finished the five-or-less innings trifecta last night. All three starters gave up four-plus runs, so Kershaw needs to lock in and hold the Cardinals at bay.
Kershaw is pitching to a 3.50 ERA and a 3.01 FIP with an 8.50 K/9 and a 2.50 BB/9 this season. He hasn't thrown more than 83 pitches in a start, so we'll see if Dave Roberts lets him loose a bit here as Los Angeles needs innings.
The Dodgers' lineup was finally whole with Mookie Betts back from his hand injury and Freddie Freeman back from the Family Emergency list. Then, Freeman left Saturday's game with a finger injury sustained while fielding a ground ball. I'd guess Freeman will be out with such a quick turnaround from Saturday to Sunday. Meanwhile, Betts has homered twice since returning and hasn't shown any signs of rust.
Shohei Ohtani is hitting .172 with an OPS below .750 in his past 15 games. Every player slumps, even if Ohtani previously appeared immune to a prolonged slump. Although, he homered Saturday, so he may be getting back on track.
We're probably looking at the worst form of the Dodgers' offense all year — and they still rank 10th in wRC+ since August 1st. While 10th would be good for most teams, the Dodgers have higher expectations are most of their metrics are inside the top five for the year.
Cardinals Betting Preview: St. Louis Needs More From Gray
Sonny Gray will look to right the ship versus a difficult lineup. Gray's ERA is approaching 4.00, but his FIP sits at 3.14. The 34-year-old starter allowed five-or-more runs in three of his past four outings, but struck out at least seven in each start.
Gray has the sixth-highest K/9 in baseball at 11.13. Even when Gray is struggling, his strikeout stuff remains intact. Gray ranks in the 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage and in the 82nd percentile in walk rate.
What's been Gray's biggest problem? The long ball. He's allowed nine homers in that five-start span, including four in a blow-up outing against the Braves. If Gray limits the homers, then he's in great shape.
The Cardinals' offense hasn't fared well against southpaws this year, posting an 85 wRC+ — the fourth worst in baseball. It's not super surprising, considering Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan have much better splits against righties.
St. Louis addressed its left-handed hitting woes a bit by adding Tommy Pham, and Willson Contreras' return from injury is also noteworthy as he leads the team with a 159 wRC+ against lefties.
Dodgers vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm backing the Dodgers here, as I'm focusing on fading the Cardinals' lineup against Kershaw. Can we trust Kershaw to reach six innings? I think so, if he's given the leash to throw 90 pitches. Gray is awesome and due for positive regression, but the homer issues are a real thing and it'll only take one swing from one of the Dodgers' sluggers to make this game lopsided.
I like the Dodgers at -125 here. They have the better lineup, a slight pitching disadvantage and a more trustworthy bullpen with Michael Kopech morphing into the Dodgers' version of Mason Miller since moving to Hollywood.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline |
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Moneyline
I like the Dodgers moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm avoiding the run line. I don't see much value in a game I could very well see finishing with the Dodgers winning by a run, but don't want to have rooting interest in the Cardinals keeping the game close, while rooting for the Dodgers moneyline.
Over/Under
