The Washington Nationals host the Los Angeles Dodgers for the series opener at Nationals Park on Monday, April 7. First pitch from MacKenzie Gore is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA and MASN, and can also be streamed on MLB.TV.
What should we expect in this matchup between MLB's best and an up-and-coming Nats team? Find my Dodgers vs Nationals predictions and picks for Monday below, in addition to my same-game parlay picks, public betting trends, weather forecast and more.
Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction
- Dodgers vs Nationals picks: First 5 Innings Under 4 (bet365, Play to -130)
My Dodgers vs Nationals best bet is the First Five Innings Under 4 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Nationals Same-Game Parlay
- F5 Under 3.5 Runs
- MacKenzie Gore Under 2.5 Earned Runs
- Dustin May Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Parlay odds: +375 (bet365)
This game has strong pitchers' duel potential early on as both May and Gore appear likely to have tremendous seasons.
Gore is entering his true prime at age 27 in his fourth year in the league, and the underlying metrics suggest he can be a truly dominant starter as early as this season.
The Nationals were quite scrappy last season and did not make it easy for opposing starters to rack up strikeouts, but that has not been the case so far this season and 4.5 could prove to be a low total for May, who could easily be a guy who's strikeout prop is at 5.5 with juice to the over later on in the year.
Dodgers vs Nationals Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -178 |
| Washington Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +150 |
- Dodgers vs Nationals Moneyline: Dodgers -178, Nats +150
- Dodgers vs Nationals Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-115), Nats +1.5 (-105)
- Dodgers vs Nationals Total: 7.5 (-120o / +100u)
- Dodgers vs Nationals Best Bet: F5 Under 4
Dodgers vs Nationals Betting Preview & Prediction
Dodgers Preview: May Day
Dustin May made his first big league start since May 17, 2023, last Tuesday, after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023, followed by a life-saving surgery to repair a ruptured esophagus after a freak incident last year.
May did not miss a beat in his return — he struck out six while allowing only one hit across five innings of work.
May entered the season after some strong work in Spring Training, in which he pitched to an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.00.
Obviously, the talent amongst the lineup suggests better form than we have seen in the opening 11 games is on the horizon, but the Dodgers have been highly ineffective versus left-handed pitching so far this season.
They hold a wRC+ of 79 and have hit just .190 versus lefties. Their 0.27 BB/K ratio also ranks 24th in MLB, and they rank 14th in hard-hit rate versus lefties.
Freddie Freeman will remain sidelined in this matchup.
Nationals Preview: Gore Flashing Potential
MacKenzie Gore's sky-high potential is one cause for optimism surrounding a Nationals side that seems destined to finish third or lower in a highly competitive NL East.
Gore finished the 2024 season with a 3.90 ERA over 166 1/3 innings, and most indicators suggest he will be comparably effective this year.
Gore holds an ERA of 2.46 across his first two starts of the season, which have come against two offenses that figure to be pretty tough on left-handed pitchers this season. He holds an xFIP of 1.88 and an xERA of 3.60 so far this season and has struck out 40.9% of batters.
So far his stuff is grading out better than it did last season, as he holds a Pitching+ rating of 107 and 114 through his initial two outings.
The Nationals lineup was productive during the team's series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend and has had a somewhat respectable start to the season despite the team's 3-6 record.
The Nats hold a wRC+ of 97 and have slugged .413. No team in baseball has struck out more often than Washington so far — plate discipline was one of the team's more notable offensive strengths.
The Nationals have been much more effective against righties this season, with a wRC+ of 114 in a sample of 214 PAs.
Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
May and Gore have tremendous potential and look like starters to buy on entering this matchup.
Gore's underlying numbers have been excellent, and it seems likely that the young lefty will continue to progress this season. While it would be foolish to think the Dodgers offense will struggle versus lefties over a larger sample, through 11 games it seems possible they could be slightly more average versus southpaws than expected.
May also looks ready to offer a massive bounce back this season and has all the tools to be one of the NL's better starters. Washington's lineup looks quite middling, and Nationals Park appears likely to feature pitcher-friendly conditions in this matchup.
At -120, I see value backing the First Five Innings (F5) stay under 4 total runs as it seems likely that the early part of this game will be somewhat of a pitchers' duel.
Pick: Under 4.0 Total Runs First 5 Innings -120 (bet365, Play to -130)
Dodgers vs Nationals Betting Trends
Dodgers Trends
- Dodgers are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Dodgers' last 5 games
Nationals Trends
- Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Nationals' 6 last games at home
Dodgers vs Nationals Viewing Info: Channel, Monday Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Nationals Park |
| Date: | Monday, April 7 |
| Time: | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | SportsNet LA; MASN; MLB.TV |
