Mariners vs Angels MLB Odds | Thursday F5 Prediction
| Seattle Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-162 | 9 +102O / -122U | -1.5 +100 |
| Los Angeles Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+136 | 9 +102O / -122U | +1.5 -120 |
The Seattle Mariners are finally free from the offensive constraints of their home park and fresh off a two-game sweep over the San Diego Padres heading into Thursday.
The Mariners now face the Angels, a team that briefly caught fire a couple of weeks ago but has now lost eight of their last 10. The Angels will call up Jack Kochanowicz from Double-A to start this matchup against Luis Castillo for the Mariners. Castillo has struggled a bit this year but is still a decent starter.
Will the Mariners hit the ball for a change, or will the rookie have instant success?
Find my Mariners vs Angels prediction and MLB betting preview below.
Seattle Mariners
It hasn't been the worst season for Castillo, but it hasn't been the best one either. The right-hander has lost a mile an hour off his four-seam fastball and is generating fewer whiffs on the pitch with more expected hits. His numbers on the fastball are definitely still solid, but they're clearly not as elite as they were a season ago.
As a result, Castillo has seen a 16-point jump in Expected Batting Average and a three-point slide in Strikeout Rate. He still profiles as a fly-ball arm who pitches to a Hard-hit Rate that sits above the league norm for a second straight season, and with fewer punch-outs, that profile has come to life a bit more.
Offensively, you know the drill by this point. The Mariners strike out more than anyone — doing so in a downright offensive 31.6% of plate appearances over the last week — and hit the ball in the air. That doesn't work out too well at home in Seattle, but now they'll step into one of the friendliest ballparks for home runs in the league.
Los Angeles Angels
Unfortunately for the Mariners, Kochanowicz is a ground-ball pitcher. He's rolled 'em up at a handsome 62.3% on the ground this season with similarly beefy numbers through his first couple years in the minors, and he has made the choice to do that in lieu of striking out batters.
Unfortunately for Kochanowicz, this hasn't really worked at the lower levels, pitching to a 4.55 ERA in Double-A this year after a 6.53 ERA last season — both of which came in 16 starts. He also owns a 13.5% Home Run-to-Fly Ball ratio, which is not too great, and last year it was over 22%. That gives me a little bit of pause against a team that can hit the ball hard but just doesn't hit the ball enough.
At the dish, I'm afraid the Angels are once again in peril. They own the worst wRC+ in baseball over the last week of play, and the return of Anthony Rendon in the leadoff spot certainly hasn't helped, given he's just 2-for-13 in his first three games back.
Luis Rengifo and Mike Trout — the two best hitters on this team — are still out with injury, and it seems the only two people interested in hitting are Logan O'Hoppe and Nolan Schanuel.
Mariners vs. Angels
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Angels lineup is in a state of flux, so it's hard to say even with the downturn in production this season from Castillo that he'll run into too much trouble. This is a team with an Isolated Power of just .097 in the past week of play, so even with limited strikeouts, I'm not sold that they'll do damage and exploit Castillo's issues on contact.
On the flip side, while Kochanowicz is a ground-ball pitcher, his results in Double-A have been troubling. We can't expect him to strike many out here after the numbers he posted at very low levels of pro ball, even if he's playing the Mariners, and that should make this offense look far better than it really is.
The Mariners can hit for power when they do put the ball in play, posting a .181 ISO in the past seven days, and they will receive a generous park upgrade here. It's not every day I put my faith behind Seattle, but this is the spot if there ever was one.
Pick: Mariners First Five Innings -0.5 (-113)
