Mariners vs. Astros ALDS Odds
| Mariners Series Price | +166 |
| Blue Jays Series Price | -196 |
Series Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 11 (3:37 p.m. ET, TBS)
- Game 2: Thursday, Oct. 13 (3:37 p.m. ET, TBS)
- Game 3: Saturday, Oct. 15
- Game 4: Sunday, Oct. 16 (if necessary)
- Game 5: Monday, Oct. 17 (if necessary)
Seattle Mariners
- World Series Odds: +1200
- Pennant Odds: +460
- Regular Season Record: 90-72
- Pythagorean Record: 89-73
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 107 (8th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.05 (16th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.73 (8th)
Odds via FanDuel
Pythagorean record via Baseball Reference
Stat rankings via FanGraphs
How They Got Here
The Mariners got off to a slow start, but a 14-game winning streak in July vaulted this team into the wild-card race. That streak was clearly the turning point in the Mariners’ season and then once Seattle went out and got Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, it became clear Seattle was looking to make an October run.
The Mariners struggled in September, but clinched a wild-card berth and are in the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
As a series underdog and with both games in Toronto, the Mariners staged a thrilling Game 2 comeback to sweep the Blue Jays, 2-0, and advance to the ALDS.
Offense
The Mariners’ lineup isn’t the most intimidating in the postseason, but — as evidenced by that 14-game winning streak — if the Mariners get hot, they can compete with anyone in the league.
Julio Rodriguez, the frontrunner to win the American LeagueRookie of the Year Award, tops the lineup with an impressive power-speed combo as he hit 27 homers and swiped 25 bases in his rookie campaign.
However, Rodriguez went on the Injured List in late September with a back strain, so his health will be important to monitor moving forward.
Rotation
The Mariners made one of the biggest trade deadline splashes when they acquired Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds. Castillo and Robbie Ray anchor the rotation while Logan Gilbert likely serves as the third starter.
If a series goes long or if the Mariners need a long man, those duties will likely fall to George Kirby or Marco Gonzales. It’s also important to note that T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly, which gives a bit of a boost to the Mariners at home.
Bullpen
The postseason is all about winning close games and the Mariners have plenty of experience in that department. With over 30 one-run wins, Seattle is certainly familiar with the tension of games that are close late. The Mariners bullpen is among the best in the league in terms of xwOBA.
Andres Munoz features a triple-digit fastball, a dominant slider and an elite whiff rate — all of which could play big roles in the playoffs. And Munoz isn’t the only Mariners’ reliever capable of missing bats as Erik Swanson, Matt Festa and Paul Sewald each also rank in the 84th percentile or better when it comes to strikeout rate. –Will Boor
Houston Astros
- World Series Odds: +340
- Pennant Odds: +145
- Regular Season Record: 106-56
- Pythagorean Record: 106-56
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 112 (6th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 3.61 (7th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 3.45 (1st)
How They Got Here
The Astros steamrolled through the American League West yet again, becoming the first team to clinch its division and winning it outright by 16 games.
With 106 wins, the Astros used a second-half surge to bypass the Yankees for the top spot in the American League and will have home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.
Offense
Despite losing yet another key piece of their World Series core in Carlos Correa to free agency, the Astros did not miss a beat. Their 112 wRC+ ranked sixth in the majors and while they were middle-of-the-pack from an average perspective, they still got on base at a top-10 clip.
Without Correa or George Springer, and with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman ageing, the Astros’ most feared hitter became Yordan Alvarez, who neared 40 home runs while topping a .300/.400/.600 split.
Altuve rebounded with another All-Star-caliber season, Bregman had a monster second half, and Kyle Tucker proved a threat with his bat, glove and on the base paths.
Rotation
American League Cy Young frontrunner Justin Verlander tops the rotation with a sub-2.00 ERA, and while he doesn’t strike out hitters in the same fashion he did in his prime, he’s still one of the most feared pitchers on the planet with a boatload of postseason experience to boot.
Behind him are young studs Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, while the likes of Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy will be relied upon as it necessitates throughout the postseason.
Bullpen
Ryan Pressly anchors the bullpen at the back-end, notching XX saves while putting up a sub-3.00 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates remain superb, and next to him the Astros can call on Hector Neris, Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu and Ryne Stanek to help bridge the gap between the starters and the ninth inning. –Collin Whitchurch
