Mariners vs. Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 9 -122/ +100 | +1.5 -132 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-190 | 9 -122/ +100 | -1.5 +110 |
The third and final game of this AL West series gets underway Sunday as the second-place Houston Astros host the third-place Seattle Mariners.
Will Seattle complete the sweep, or can Houston end the series on a high note?
Here's a look at the odds and my Mariners vs. Astros betting pick and prediction.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle is a solid team, but its lineup is one of the most overrated in baseball. The Mariners rank in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
With that said, this lineup's biggest weakness is avoiding the strikeout.
Seattle ranks second-to-last in MLB in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Sunday's projected starting lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 24% this year. That is terrible, and these strikeout woes are likely to continue against right-hander Hunter Brown.
Houston Astros
Hunter Brown is putting together a solid sophomore campaign and is 9-8 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP through 23 appearances.
Those relatively underwhelming surface-level stats might not sell you, but his strong underlying metrics will.
The right-hander ranks in the 52nd percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG and K%. Specifically, we are going to back Brown in the strikeout department.
You can find his strikeout prop at 6.5 on FanDuel and Brown has recorded seven or more strikeouts in nine of his past 15 starts.
Mariners vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Brown's strikeout success is likely to continue against the swing-happy Mariners. In his lone career start against Seattle (July 7), Brown recorded eight strikeouts in just three innings.
Looking at it from the other side, this Mariners lineup possesses a fade-worthy 37.5 K% and a 43.3 Whiff% through 16 career plate appearances against Brown.
