Mariners vs Astros Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks Sunday (July 21)
Via Ben VanHouten/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryan Woo #22 of the Seattle Mariners pitches at T-Mobile Park on May 31, 2024 in Seattle, Washington.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-112 | 7.5 -105o/ -115u | +1.5 -198 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-108 | 7.5 -105o/ -115u | 11.5 +164 |
The Houston Astros look to extend their lead in the AL West over the Seattle Mariners on Sunday afternoon and earn a sweep to open up the second half of the MLB season.
The Astros struggled for most of April and May but have been one of the best teams in all of baseball since the beginning of June. Ronel Blanco takes the mound for Houston and will oppose Bryan Woo for the Mariners. The Mariners are trying to stop the bleeding, as they’ve lost five games in a row and are 3-7 in their last 10.
Oddsmakers make the matchup a pick'em with Seattle being slight favorites at -112 on the moneyline.
Find my Astros vs. Mariners prediction and MLB betting preview below.
Seattle Mariners
The Astros' turnaround this season has been remarkable. They were dead in the water when the calendar turned to June, but they’ve managed to quickly ascend to the top of the AL West, mostly without their superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker.
Blanco gets the start on Sunday afternoon, and he has a tasty matchup against the Mariners. He's held the opposition to a .200 batting average over 35 at-bats.
Blanco's terrific 2.56 ERA is impressive, but his 3.56 xERA indicates he has been a subject of fortune. His other metrics such as xBA, Chase Rate and Whiff Rate are solid, but opposing hitters are squaring up the baseball a fair amount against him.
It's a strong matchup, but his tendency to allow hard contact is something to monitor today against Seattle. The Mariners strikeout more than any team in the MLB, but they have plenty of offensive talent to capitalize on mistakes.
The Astros offense draws a tough matchup against Woo, which is another reason I am holding off on backing them here. Woo has strong career numbers against them, and he is tough to generate solid contact against.
The Stros are 2-for-13 in limited at-bats against him lifetime, so I would not be surprised to see Woo frustrate the offense for most of the game. It's a strange spot for the Astros, and there are far too many uncertainties to make them a solid bet for the full game.
Houston Astros
It is a big game for the Mariners, who do not want to extend their five-game losing streak. Their AL-West lead has quickly evaporated, and they could be three games behind the Astros if they lose this afternoon.
I mentioned Woo above in the Astros breakdown, but he is definitely the key to the game. He only has 29 strikeouts in 44 innings pitched, but all of his other metrics are truly outstanding.
Woo ranks above the 90th percentile in the following metrics:
- xBA (.215)
- xERA (.255)
- Walk Rate (99th percentile)
- Barrel Rate (99th)
These are truly remarkable numbers, and it'll be interesting to see if Woo can turn things around on Sunday. The Astros have not figured him out quite yet, so I have a sneaky feeling he can dominate in this start.
The Mariners offense has struggled in 2024, and it's all due to a lack of consistency. If you take a look at their lineup, it's full of very talented hitters who are capable of hitting the ball hard but strikeout a ton.
Boom or bust is probably the best way to describe this lineup, but fortunately, they're opposing a regression candidate in Blanco on Sunday. They are batting .217 against right-handed pitchers with a Strikeout Rate well above 30%.
The M's are batting .119 since the All-Star Break, so I have a feeling it is only a matter of time before that turns around. Given that I like the matchup for Woo, I think it is a good time to buy low on the Mariners and have faith that their offense can score a few runs early on.
Mariners vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
I am going to back the Mariners on Sunday, but I do not trust them enough to suggest a full-game play. The best approach to eliminate late-game variance is to trust Woo early on Sunday as the offense breaks through against Blanco.
Blanco should strike out a good amount of hitters, but if he continues to allow too much hard contact, it's very possible the Mariners can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard.
As bad as the Mariners offense has been, they're too talented to continue this trend, and I will happily buy low on their stock in the first five innings.
Pick: Seattle Mariners F5 (-120)
How would you rate this article?
