Mariners vs. Marlins Odds
| Mariners Odds | -105 |
| Marlins Odds | -105 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (+100/-120) |
| Time | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
After struggling in the run differential department last year, the Seattle Mariners have flipped the script and now have the second best run differential in the American League at +20. Seattle sits at 11-8, but enters having lost two in a row to Tampa Bay.
Miami enters Friday night with a 10-8 record and a +6 run differential, eighth in the National League. The Marlins have won five straight games after winning a series in Atlanta and then sweeping the Nationals.
Both of these teams are two of the favorites in the Action Network Slack Channel. I am the driver of the Mariners bandwagon, while my Action Network rival, Tanner McGrath leads the Fish Frenzy. It is important to note, Tanner is one of our “college basketball experts” yet lost to me in a bracket challenge, despite me watching zero college basketball games.
As much as I love Seattle, I promise to but my bias aside and help examine where the value lies in Friday’s series opener.
Seattle Mariners: Brash Living up to Prospect Ranking
If you like NASTY stuff, Matt Brash (RHP) is the pitcher for you. Entering the season on MLB's list of top 100 prospects, the 23-year-old made the team out of camp and made his MLB debut on April 12. Brash has stuff that looks like he’s using a whiffle ball. His slider averages 41.4 inches of vertical drop and 16.9 inches of horizontal break — almost 10 inches more than the average slider.
Matt Brash, Disgusting Sliders. 🤮 pic.twitter.com/N3h2fJIEmq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 12, 2022
Brash’s curveball has the fourth highest average spin rate in the league this year. His results haven’t been elite yet, but through his first three starts, he is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA. Over the first four innings, he has allowed two runs in 12 innings. However, he has run out of gas after that and in the fifth and sixth innings has allowed five runs in three innings.
Seattle went out an acquired All-Star Adam Frazier and Eugenio Suarez this offseason to help round out a loaded offense. The Mariners rank sixth in wOBA and second in wRC+.
First baseman Ty France is third in MLB with 27 hits. He ranks sixth in the league in on-base percentage and shortstop J.P. Crawford ranks fifth. Only Mike Trout has a higher xwOBA than France. Mitch Haniger remains sidelined after a tough bout with COVID-19, but Seattle hopes to get him back at some point this weekend.
Miami Marlins: Can Chisholm Get to Brash?
The Marlins will feature another young arm in 26-year-old Elieser Hernandez (RHP). The former top 10 pick made his MLB debut in 2018 and has made 41 starts and 73 appearances in the past five seasons. He has an 8-16 record with a 4.75 ERA in his career.
Through three starts this year, Hernandez is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA. He tossed a one-run gem against Philadelphia in his second start, but in the other two allowed four and five runs and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. The issue has been his fastball, which has been teed-off to a .323 average and 42.3 HardHit%.
Miami is going to be carried by the young arms of its pitching staff. The Marlins offense lacks a true superstar and ranks just 21st in runs scored. The Marlins advanced numbers are a little more favorable though, as they sit 12th in wOBA and and 10th in wRC+.
Jazz Chisholm looks like he’s having a breakout year, currently ranking top 10 in the league in wOBA and wRC+. He’s got four home runs and 15 RBIs to go along with a .308 batting average. He also is hitting .400 against sliders this year, which will come in handy against Brash’s best pitch.
Mariners-Marlins Pick
While Brash has yet to have the results and dominant outings some expected, his stuff is so nasty that it just seems inevitable. Despite rankings 12th in wOBA at the plate, the Marlins are just 19th in xwOBA.
The Mariners rank second in xwOBA. Hernandez has struggled this year and the Mariners are in a great spot in this matchup. Hernandez throws his fastball 49% of the time and it has been hammered to the tune of a .323 batting average, .490 wOBA and a 42.3% hard-hit rate.
Seattle has hit fastballs better than any team in the entire league by a wide margin. The Mariners have a wFB value of 20.3, more than double the second-best team. France, Crawford and Frazier are all batting over .300 against fastballs this year and France and Crawford have an wOBA over .500 against four-seamers.
Neither starting pitcher has been able to go very deep into games this year and the Mariners bullpen currently ranks fifth in the league in xFIP, where the Marlins relievers rank 16th.
I expect the Mariners offense to jump on Hernandez early and often and build a lead that allows Brash to confidently spin his stuff.
All bias aside with my love for the Mariners and desire to one-up Tanner, Seattle has a big advantage at the plate in this matchup and the price is just too short with Brash on the mound.
Take the MLB leaders in fun differential at -105 and I would play them to -125.
Pick: Seattle Mariners -105
