Mariners vs. Padres MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Both Pitchers Looking at Poor Matchups (Tuesday, July 5)

Mariners vs. Padres Odds

Mike Clevinger and the San Diego Padres will play host to Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners Tuesday afternoon.

Gilbert has been the ace of Seattle's staff — carrying a 2.66 ERA — but his xERA is 4.09, so negative regression is forthcoming.

Out of the other dugout, Clevinger looked like the old Clevinger in a start on June 29 against Arizona — he tossed six shutout innings. In limited work this season off of an injury, he owns a 2.79 ERA against a 3.07 xERA.

These numbers are better than Gilbert’s, but Clevinger is not infallible. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in walk rate. Meanwhile, the Mariners are third in the MLB in walks, only trailing the Yankees and Dodgers.

Both of these teams can hit right-handed pitching. The Padres own a 120 wRC+ in the last month off of righties. Seattle owns a 103 wRC+, which is slightly above average.

Taking the over in this game is the right call.

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Mariners' Gilbert Has Bad Matchup on Tuesday

Gilbert ranks in the eighth percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and Average Exit Velocity. This is in no way encouraging for the Seattle faithful. His Hard Hit Rate is 46%, while his Average Exit Velocity against is 91.1 mph.

He had these issues last season, too.

To his defense, he's above average when it comes to limiting walks and striking out hitters, but he'll have trouble with the San Diego lineup.

Wil Myers is on the 10-day injured list for the Padres, and obviously, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Matt Beaty are on the 60-day IL.

In the last month of play, the Padres have six batters over a .340 xwOBA off of righties. In addition, seven hitters are averaging at least 90 mph in terms of Exit Velocity. This does not bode well for Gilbert.

Luckily for the Mariners, they do have a solid bullpen. Since June 5, they own a 3.15 collective xFIP. Tommy Milone is one of the weaker arms, but he's the only one above a 4.00 mark.

This means the Padres will have to squeeze runs across the plate when Gilbert is still pitching.

Are Padres in Trouble Against Opposing Lineup?

Clevinger looks like his vintage persona.

Tom Murphy, Luis Torrens, Evan White, Ty France, Taylor Trammell, Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis are all out for the Mariners. There's a reason why they just traded for Carlos Santana to play first base.

Seattle does have five batters over a .340 xwOBA, and Adam Frazier is not very far behind at .327.

There are plenty of bats to put together strong plate appearances with Clevinger in the game. The Mariners will manufacture a few runs, and since they work the count as a team, Clevinger may not make it past five innings. That is likely his max.

Unlike Seattle, San Diego has had some weak spots in the bullpen in the last month. The Padres have posted a 3.83 xFIP since June 5.

This bullpen is also plagued by injuries, as they have six relievers on the IL. They only have three active arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so this means between Clevinger and closer Taylor Rogers, they might struggle.

Look for Seattle to score during these innings.

Mariners-Padres Pick

Take the over in this game. Gilbert is due for a bad outing, and the Mariners are an awful matchup for Clevinger, especially given how patient they are.

The Mariners will take advantage of a depleted San Diego ‘pen, and San Diego will score at least three runs off of Gilbert.

Play the over from 7 (-115) to 8 (-110).

Even if a pair of aces are taking the bump, they will not be picture perfect against teams that will exploit their weaknesses.

Pick: Over 7 (-115) | play to 8 (-110)