Editor's note: The Mariners announced Tuesday afternoon that Marco Gonzales will start in place of Logan Gilbert.
Mariners vs. Phillies Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -118 | 8 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +138 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -166 |
Two teams struggling to find their footing early in the season meet on Tuesday night as the Seattle Mariners head to Citizens Bank Park and take on the Philadelphia Phillies.
Both teams sit at fourth in their respective division and sit under .500 after making the playoffs a season ago. It's still early, but both teams have battled injuries and early season struggles, looking to right the ship as May nears.
Logan Gilbert gets the call for Seattle looking to bounce back from a six-inning, four-run outing against Milwaukee. He'll be matched up with southpaw Bailey Falter, who threw seven innings of three-run ball against the White Sox a week ago.
Here's how to bet the Tuesday night matchup.
Seattle Mariners
There were plenty of underlying concerns for Logan Gilbert last year. His xERA was nearly a run higher than his actual ERA, his strikeout numbers dropped and his hard-hit% peaked above 45. But this season — albeit, a four-game sample size — has flashed a more polished Gilbert. He's become much more comfortable on the mound.
Name a category and Gilbert has improved it. Hard-Hit%? Dropped 9.4 points down to 36.2. xBA? It's down to .203 after sitting around .253 a season ago. He's limiting hard contact with pinpoint accuracy and has outperformed his current numbers to date. His xERA (2.33) and xFIP (2.93) are both well below his actual ERA of 3.57.
It's important to remember it's only been four starts, but Gilbert has made changes to his arsenal. He's throwing his four-seam fastball seven percent less and his changeup and sinker have become obsolete. He's added a split finger to his now four-pitch mix and it's been his most effective pitch to date.
Opponents have a .070 xBA and .059 xSLG against the pitch, which he throws 13.7% of the time. His slider has also seen an uptick in velocity, while his four-seam has dipped a little bit.
As for the offense, Seattle draws its worse split. The Mariners are 24th in wRC+ and K% against left-handed pitching. Cal Raleigh normally sits in these spots while Kolten Wong (71 wRC+), JP Crawford (69), Ty France (65), Tom Murphy (-74) and AJ Pollock (-87) have all been ineffective at the plate against southpaws.
It should be noted at the same time that Teoscar Hernandez has been incredible (1.222 OPS) in his 18 plate appearances against LHP and the youthful outfield duo of Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic have both been plus hitters in these situations.
Seattle's bullpen has graded out about average in the opening month. Andres Munoz has been on the injured list leaving the Mariners a bit shorthanded and inconsistent behind Paul Sewald.
Philadelphia Phillies
Expectations were high for Philadelphia fresh off a National League pennant, but offseason injuries and regression struck, leaving the Phillies struggling in the opening month. They are just 11-12 with a (-10) run differential and sit at fourth in the NL East.
Falter takes the mound on Tuesday and his production has been about as mediocre as it comes. His ERA sits at 4.50 — xERA down at 4.24 — but has seen his strikeout rate dip below 14%. He's forcing groundballs at a much higher rate this season than last (16.5%) and should see positive regression with a 68.8 LOB% in four starts.
While Falter's numbers don't look much improved (.268 xBA, .441 xSLG, 8.3 barrel%), compared to pitchers across the board and the trend of higher-scoring games, Falter has steadied the course. He ranks much higher percentile-wise in the three aforementioned categories from a season ago.
Like many pitchers in the offseason, Falter has changed up his pitch-mix. He's throwing his four-seam fastball nearly 50% of the time — last year, it was 31.2% — and has all but abandoned the sinker. He's become a primary two-pitch southpaw with the curveball pairing alongside the heater. He throws his changeup and slider nearly 10% of the time each, too.
The Phillies' offense has fared well against right-handed pitching, ranking inside the top 10 in both wRC+ and ISO, but they do not walk (21st) and can run into occasional strikeout issues (21st). It's been mostly unsung heroes that have run hot for the Phillies with Bryson Stott (.340 avg., 7 doubles) and Brandon Marsh (.364 avg., 14 XBHs) leading the way. Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto have struggled a bit.
Philadelphia's bullpen ranks 22nd in xFIP and have been extremely shorthanded to begin the season. Andrew Bellatti and Nick Nelson are both on the injured list and aside from Jose Alvarado — 10 1/3 IP, 20 Ks, 5 Hs, 1R — the backend has largely struggled. Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez are late-inning options, too.
Mariners vs. Phillies Betting Pick
I am a believer of Gilbert's recent success. Last year, I looked to fade the right-hander, but he's made changes to his arsenal that give me the inclination his advanced metrics showing promise isn't a fluke. He's improved across the board and adding a split finger has been a difference maker early on.
While Falter does present some concern from time to time, the increase in groundball rate and his LOB%/xERA numbers suggest positive regression. Even with a low strikeout rate, Tuesday night is a great matchup for Falter given Seattle's struggles against left-handed pitching.
There's too many question marks across the board regarding the Phillies and Mariners bullpen, so I feel safer trusting the starting pitching matchups where I think the edge lies. Both offenses should struggle in this matchup and a first five under is worth a look at 4.5.
Last year, both pitchers were extremely successful the first time through the order. That's key here against two offenses that have run into occasional struggles and in a matchup where I see the pitchers having the edge.
2022 first time through the order:
Falter — .216/.268/.353
Gilbert — .212/.264/.333
Trust the pitching to get the job done and avoid the bullpens with a first five under at Citizens Bank Park.
Author's note: With the announcement that Marco Gonzales will start in place of Logan Gilbert, the recommended bet on this game is now Phillies moneyline.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 |
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