Mariners vs Rangers Pick Saturday | MLB Odds, Predictions Today (September 23)
Pictured: Marcus Semien. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Mariners vs Rangers Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+106 | 8.5 runs -108 / -112 | +1.5 -200 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 8.5 runs -108 / -112 | -1.5 +164 |
Despite a tumultuous back half of the year, Texas now controls its own destiny in the AL West race again after an 8-5 win in the series opener. Seattle will look to draw even Saturday as it sends Logan Gilbert (3.77 ERA, 179 IP) to take on Jordan Montgomery (3.38 ERA, 175 and 2/3 IP).
Seattle Mariners
Logan Gilbert will look to shake off a tough outing versus a powerhouse Dodgers side in this important spot. He has pitched to an ERA of 4.50 in 24 innings of work in September and has allowed a WHIP of 1.29. His xERA sits at 3.73 entering this matchup, and his xFIP at 3.71. He owns a Stuff+ mark of 106 and a Location+ of 102.
Despite his modest recent results, Gilbert's underlying profile remains steady entering this matchup and there is little evidence suggesting a meaningful drop-off in form will be sustained.
Where we could potentially see a drop off in form is with the Mariners offensive splits. A 113 wRC+ over the last 30 days displays quite a hot stretch relative to the season average for Seattle. The 0.33 BB/K ratio sits 23rd, however, and a .303 BABIP has helped inflate the results.
Texas Rangers
With three straight wins which have included a total of 29 runs for, the Rangers lineup has displayed the dominance we saw so often early in the season entering this matchup. Josh Jung has returned effectively from injury, slugging .611 across 18 at-bats.
The Rangers have been the fourth-most potent lineup in baseball this season versus right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 114. Their 5.97 runs per game at home has led to a dominant 48-31 mark at Globe Life Field. They own a wRC+ of 126 at home, compared to a mark of only 100 on the road.
The Rangers have also fielded quite well. They sit sixth with 22 outs above average, ninth in defensive runs saved and second in fielding errors.
In 54 and 2/3 innings of work with the Rangers, Jordan Montgomery owns an ERA of 3.29 with a WHIP of 1.09. His xwoba has risen right to league average at .308, and he holds an xERA of 3.97. His Stuff+ is 97 and Location+ 101.
Mariners vs. Rangers
Betting Pick & Prediction
With Josh Jung and Adolis Garcia back in the lineup Texas deserves to be viewed as the significantly more potent offensive lineup between these sides. At full health their fielding has also been excellent as well, and their record suggests they hold a legitimate home-field advantage this season.
Gilbert is the better of the two starters in this matchup, but the margin between Montgomery and him is still too close for me to believe the Rangers shouldn't be a larger favorite than -115 in this spot.
Seattle does own a superior bullpen, so backing the Rangers F5 line could be an option, but the Rangers' other edges will still hold true in those innings and negate the strength of Seattle's bullpen, particularly in leading game scripts.
Anything better than -120 is a play for me on Texas to take this crucial game.
Picks: Texas Rangers -115, F5 -115
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