Marlins vs. Athletics Odds, Pick
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-182 | 7.5 -122 / +100 | -1.5 +120 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 7.5 -122 / +100 | +1.5 -142 |
The Miami Marlins have caught fire with a sweep of the Colorado Rockies and will look to keep the good times rolling against another low-quality opponent in the Oakland A's.
The A's have found some form themselves — taking six of their last seven — and will now meet a left-hander in Ryan Weathers who's coming off his worst start of the season.
Will Weathers rebound in a friendlier matchup, or will JP Sears and Oakland own the day?
Let's get into the best way to bet on Marlins vs. A's on Friday.
Miami Marlins
As it tends to work in baseball, one win can be everything. Miami finally got the proverbial monkey off its back with a victory in extra innings over the Rockies on Wednesday to snap a seven-game slide.
After that, it looked like a much different team over the next two games, exercising some dominance on the hill.
One man who's struggled after looking dominant against San Francisco three turns ago is Weathers, who allowed six earned runs over four frames in his most recent outing against the Nationals.
After fanning 10 Giants in that gem, he's struck out just four batters in 9 2/3 frames over his last two starts, with 11 hits and six walks.
The free pass has continued to be a sticking point for the southpaw, as he's posting a walk rate near 11% for a second straight season.
Aside from that outlier against the Giants, he's been considerably below average in the strikeout department. Plus, his .263 xBA and .453 xSLG — both significantly worse than the league average — have played up as a result.
Weathers has done a better job than last year of pitching to ground balls, and his fly-ball rate is in the best spot it's been in his short career. He's traded those in for more line drives, however, and his hard-hit rate remains poor at 41.3%. It's hard to say he's done anything to inspire confidence.
Speaking of which, this Marlins offense continues to look lifeless. They're only walking in 6.8% of plate appearances, the worst mark in baseball, and while they're not striking out a whole lot, they're 26th in hard-hit rate and dead last in Isolated Power.
As the team with the most ground balls on average in the league, this certainly makes sense.
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland A's may just be figuring things out at the plate. They've posted the ninth-best wRC+ in baseball over the last week, cutting back on strikeouts, increasing their walks to nearly 10% and posting a .199 ISO, which is much beefier than their .153 mark for the season.
It's important to note that the power numbers did begin to increase at the hitter-friendly Camden Yards, where they slugged four homers and five doubles. But in their mid-week series at home versus the Pirates, they managed to knock five out of the park in three games.
Their numbers at their spacious home park still don't match up to their marks away from home, but the five homers in Oakland are incredibly encouraging and a testament to their excellent 9.2% barrel rate, which ranks third in the league.
Sears, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, has benefited from pitching in Oakland, given he's yet to allow a homer in two home starts. His struggles have persisted in this split, though, and he's actually pitched to a worse ERA in these outings.
The issue is that Sears has continued to struggle in the walk department and has pitched to unsightly barrel and hard-hit rates. That's brought his xSLG all the way up to .480 — a mark that's close to the bottom 10% of the league.
The lefty has walked just two over his last two outings with 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings, so perhaps things may improve in this outing.
He did allow three homers and eight total hits in Baltimore in his last go around, but he can at least hang his hat on a solid K/BB ratio as reason to believe things may improve.
Marlins vs. Athletics
Betting Pick & Prediction
Sears' walk rate is quickly improving, and he'll meet an impatient Marlins team on Friday, which should greatly aid him in his pursuit of some stability. They're swinging at everything and making weak contact.
Miami has been dreadful on offense, and against lefties, it grades out as the second-worst team in the league through the first month of the season. I think the matchup here is a friendly one for the A's, who should remain hot at the plate against a very troubled starter in Weathers.
I'm encouraged by Oakland's power streak continuing at home, where it's slugged five round-trippers in its last three games. I think it should get to Weathers.
