Marlins vs. Braves Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+166 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -118 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -198 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -102 |
It's getaway day across the big league circuit and Thursday's slate begins with the final game between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves. The Braves took the first two games of the series without any drama, then mounted a late rally to take Wednesday night's contest.
Kyle Wright will get the ball Thursday as the Braves look to sweep. Wright had a late start to the season and has yet to get on track through three starts. However, this may be the spot for him to "wright" the ship, as this will be his best matchup to date.
Opposing him will be Braxton Garrett. Miami's lethal lefty has gotten off to a strong start in 2023 and enters this outing with a 2.84 ERA, but that number may be deceiving.
So, can the Braves finish off the Marlins? Let's take a closer look and uncover the best bet for this matchup.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins lineup is not one that jumps off the page. They have just four hitters with above-average hard-hit rates and only two have great xwOBAs. As a whole, they rank 22nd in wRC+ and wOBA.
Wright appears to be a favorable matchup for the Marlins as he enters this start with a 6.41 xERA and a boatload of hard contact surrendered. However, Wright has had the Marlins' number in the past and should be able to bounce back against them.
The Marlins' current order has accumulated 54 at-bats against Wright. In those at-bats, they have hit just .111 with an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph. They've also struck out in a third of those at-bats.
Atlanta Braves
We go from a lineup that lacks pop to one that should be feared by opposing pitchers. The Braves have been crushing the ball early this season.
They are leading the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. If you watched Wednesday, you saw just how explosive Atlanta can be as it scored all six of its runs in the final four innings.
The Braves are in line to feast against Garrett, who is due for some sizeable regression. Garrett has a 5.07 xERA, which is due to the amount of hard contact he's allowed thus far.
Garrett ranks in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity allowed. However, to make this matchup even better, the Braves have been one of the best teams against lefties.
Atlanta is third in the majors in wRC+ and second in wOBA against lefties. The Braves should do damage early and often against Garrett.
Marlins vs. Braves Betting Pick
The Marlins had their chance to steal a game in this series on Wednesday, but the bullpen was unable to hold the lead. That battered bullpen will help our angle for this matchup as well.
The Braves should hit Garrett hard. However, they'll have plenty of opportunities to score against a Marlins bullpen that boasts the second-worst FIP in baseball.
Take the over on the Braves team total, which should probably be a run higher given the matchup.
Pick: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 Runs |
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