Marlins vs. Cubs Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+144 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -146 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -172 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +122 |
The Chicago Cubs will get us started for a second straight day, but this time, they return to their friendly confines of Wrigley Field.
Believe it or not, Patrick Corbin stifled the Cubs as he held them to just two runs over seven innings. But a closer look shows a very different picture.
As for the Miami Marlins, they are glad not to see the Atlanta Braves in the opposing dugout for this matchup. Miami enters this matchup following a sweep at the hands of Atlanta, and it was outscored 26 to nine in the series.
The Marlins will hand the ball to Edward Cabrera, who will be tasked with getting the team back on track. However, that's much easier said than done.
Opposing Cabrera for the Cubbies will be Justin Steele. Steele faced this same Marlins lineup just five days ago and was magnificent. But will the schedule lead to his first fault of the season?
Miami Marlins
As a whole, the Marlins' lineup hasn't proven to be formidable, as they enter this game ranked 22nd in wRC+ and 21st in wOBA. However, the bats were able to do enough in the series last week against the Cubs, as they won each game.
Looking back to April 30 when they faced Justin Steele, the Marlins were able to scratch out seven hits and produce three runs over his six innings of work.
However, Miami was very fortunate with its hits, as it had just two hard-hit events and only eight balls were hit over 90 miles per hour overall.
Limiting hard contact has been a theme for Steele this season, as he comes into this outing ranking in the top eight percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
Steele's three-pitch mix has been a puzzle for opposing orders through six starts, and while he's due to regress overall, the numbers show he's due for immediate positive regression against this Marlins lineup.
Chicago Cubs
We went over yesterday just how impressive this Cubs lineup has been, as they have been a top-10 team in terms of offense. Despite only putting up two runs on three hits against Corbin, the Cubs didn't have a bad day at the dish whatsoever.
Chicago had six batted balls that registered in at over 100 miles per hour and four more that were over 90 mph. It continued to hit the ball hard and were very unlucky yesterday.
Although if the Cubs want to succeed this afternoon, they'll not only need to generate hard contact but show more discipline, as well.
The Cubs will get their second look at Cabrera in the last week.
Last time out, Cabrera put together his best outing of the season against the Cubs. The flame-throwing right-hander struck out 12 batters over five innings but allowed two runs and walked five men.
Cabrera's stuff has proven to be tough to hit as his xBA and whiff rate are elite. But when batters do make contact, it's been hard. He ranks in the bottom 35 percent in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
So, if the Cubs can make Cabrera throw strikes, they should be able to punish him for his command issues.
Marlins vs. Cubs Betting Pick
The Cubs let us down yesterday on Corbin day, but as we've seen, they were very unfortunate. This afternoon, their luck is bound to turn as Cabrera won't get away with his mistakes for a second straight start.
On the other side, Steele is due to have more balls bounce in his favor this time around, as the Marlins order has yet to prove they can square him up.
So, we're going back to the well here and taking the Cubs to cover the spread in the first five. But the Cubs' full game spread deserves a sprinkle too, as the Marlins' bullpen sports the sixth-worst ERA in the majors.
Pick: Cubs F5 -0.5 (-110) |
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