The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins in a three-game National League Wild Card Round series beginning on Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park.
They clinched their playoff spot and positioning well in advance of the end of the season and locked themselves into the No. 4 seed in the NL playoff field. The Marlins rode a late hot streak and subsequent cold streak by the Cubs to get in as the No. 5 seed.
The Phillies, who will host all three potential games, opened as -200 favorites to advance to the NLDS at FanDuel. The road Marlins are +160 underdogs.
Below, you'll find the full schedule for this series, as well as a breakdown of both teams and how they got to this point.
All odds cited below via FanDuel. For updated odds on every series throughout the postseason, be sure to visit our MLB futures page. For individual game odds throughout the postseason at a variety of sportsbooks, visit our MLB odds page.
Marlins vs. Phillies NL Wild Card Round Schedule
- Game 1: Tuesday, October 3, 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 2: Wednesday, October 4, 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN
- Game 3: Thursday, October 5, 8:08 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Miami Marlins
- World Series Odds: +5000
- Pennant Odds: +1800
- Regular Season Record: 84-77
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 95 (19th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.07 (7th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.209 (8th)
How They Got Here
The 2023 Miami Marlins got to the postseason by going 33-13 in one-run games. Add in a 7-3 record in extra-inning games, and the Fish are postseason-bound despite a -56 run differential.
They finally saw some regression with a 10-17 record in August, and their FanGraphs playoff odds dropped as low as 11% on August 30.
But this team has heart, playmakers and a great manager in Skip Schumaker. This rag-tag group won 17 of their final 27, sneaking into the second wild-card spot.
Considering Sandy Alcantara’s notorious first-half struggles and Jazz Chisholm Jr. missing 65 games, it’s incredible that the Fish are playing baseball in October again.
Offense
Luis Arraez became the first-ever player to win the batting title in both leagues in consecutive seasons, and Jorge Soler became the fourth-ever Marlins player to hit 35 homers in a season (Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sheffield, Mercell Ozuna). This is the one-two punch the Fish are built upon.
Miami hits well against southpaws (103 wRC+) but slumps slightly against righties (92 wRC+). The Marlins hit for average (.260, third in MLB) but failed to produce any real substance (.147 ISO, 26th).
Adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the deadline was massive in dealing with the Marlins’ power problem. Plus, a fully healthy Chisholm significantly raises the unit’s ceiling.
Unfortunately, Arraez is limping through an ankle injury, which could prove costly at the top of the lineup.
Rotation
At its best, Miami boasts a dangerous rotation. Unfortunately, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez have hit the IL, and we shouldn’t expect either back for the Wild Card Round.
That leaves Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett as the top three entering the postseason.
There’s a lot of raw talent in that three-man rotation, especially from a strikeout/stuff perspective. But all three are younger, mercurial, streaky pitchers. I’m expecting either dominant, near-shutout performances, or total blowups.
It should be fun!
Bullpen
How do you win 33 one-run games?
Great relief pitching in high-leverage situations.
The Marlins' bullpen exceeded anyone's wildest expectations. AJ Puk, Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi have been nails this year. The Fish finished the year with the seventh-best reliever xFIP (4.07) and sixth in FanGraphs Bullpen Clutch metric (3.17%).
The Fish added David Robertson at the deadline to this surprisingly adept core. He’s been a semi-disaster since coming over from Queens, but he raises the ceiling of this unit.
If the Fish make any noise this October, this unit will be a huge reason why.
—Tanner McGrath
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Philadelphia Phillies
- World Series Odds: +1200
- Pennant Odds: +600
- Regular Season Record: 90-72
- Team wRC+ (Rank): 105 (11th)
- Starting Pitching xFIP (Rank): 4.03 (5th)
- Bullpen xFIP (Rank): 4.06 (7th)
How They Got Here
The Phillies are almost a carbon copy of last year’s team, but are now equipped with more pitching depth and better defense. They played below .500 for the first two months of the season, but were one of baseball’s elite from June forward.
Unlike last year, the Phillies didn’t have to grind through September to secure a final playoff spot in the final days of the season. Instead, the Phillies cruised to the No. 4 seed and secured home field advantage for the Wild Card Round.
Offense
It’s been a rollercoaster for the Phillies lineup in 2023. Trea Turner had an OPS below .700 for the first 100 games of the season, but transformed into an elite player in August and September. Despite the early struggle, he still finished with north of 25 homers and an above-league-average wRC+. Nick Castellanos has been the Phillies most consistent slugger from start to finish, though he had a major post All-Star slump. Castellanos is hitting lower in the order now, behind youngsters Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott, who have excellent hit tools and are tough to strikeout.
The Phillies will go as far as Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can take them. Harper went more than a month without a homer as he struggled to lift the ball and find his power stroke. Even despite the poor stretch post elbow surgery, by his standards, Harper will still finish the season with a strong slash line. Schwarber is an unconventional leadoff hitter because of his low batting average, but his elite plate discipline means only Juan Soto walked more in MLB. Schwarber’s power and patience is daunting in front of Turner and Harper at the top of the lineup.
Rotation
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola will be expected to carry the Phillies in the playoffs. Wheeler has been as good as ever with a 3.18 xERA and a 21.9 K-BB%. Nola has seen a drop in his strikeout rate and has also struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Nola’s 4.46 ERA and 3.74 xERA are both a full run worse than last season.
One benefit for Nola is that he’ll make his first two starts at Citizens Bank Park, where he’s been considerably better in his career. He’ll also be on extra rest. Behind the two aces, I’d expect Ranger Suarez to fill the role as the No. 3 starter, but to have a short leash because of the Phillies bullpen depth.
Bullpen
The Phillies entered last year with three reliable relievers – Jose Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez and starter Zach Eflin. Now, there’s no bullpen in MLB with better versatility and pure stuff than the Phillies.
There’s questions if they’ll throw enough strikes — Craig Kimbrel, Gregory Soto, Alvarado and Dominguez have concerns — but they have three decently reliable lefties and the emergence of Jeff Hoffman Orion and Kerkering (elite Stuff+ metrics) provides manager Rob Thomson with a ton of options to shorten games.
—Anthony Dabbundo
