Marlins vs. Pirates Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-122 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +140 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -170 |
Edward Cabrera will get the start for the Miami Marlins on Friday against Osvaldo Bido and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cabrera is an impressive young arm and although he walks plenty of batters, he also racks up strikeouts at a decent pace and the Pirates strike out often. However, the major difference in this ballgame is that the Pirates are slightly below average off of righties this month, while the Marlins have hammered right-handed pitching.
That said, the Marlins moneyline is a bit steep, so taking the Marlins to go over their team total is the best bet in this matchup.
Miami Marlins
Cabrera owns a 4.22 ERA and a 3.72 xERA this season. His Barrel Rate is 6.9%, his Average Exit Velocity is 87.7 mph and he has a Hard-Hit Rate of 35.6%. However, his strikeout rate is 27.7% and his walk rate is 15.2%.
In the second half, he's truly taken off and pitched to a 3.10 ERA over 29 innings.
Miami has a .786 OPS and a 110 wRC+ off of righties this month. The Marlins have an 8.8% walk rate and a 21% strikeout rate. They have four hitters with an xwOBA over .400 off of righties in September. This can be a potent lineup, particularly at the top, and since Pittsburgh's pitching staff has its holes, Miami should have a big offensive outing.
Josh Bell pulls the Marlins back within two runs with his solo homer to kick off the bottom of the 6th!
📺: FS1 pic.twitter.com/OQEnWal7IP
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 21, 2023
Pittsburgh Pirates
Bido holds a 6.36 ERA against a 4.58 xERA. His Barrel Rate is 4.7% and his Hard-Hit Rate is 38.9%. Bido also only strikes out 19.9% of batters and walks 9% of them. That's not a great discrepancy.
The Pirates have a .734 OPS and a 96 wRC+ with an 8.3% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate this month off of righties. They have six batters with an xwOBA over .310, so if Cabrera has trouble with control, most of the Pirates hitters can work the count.
In relief, Pittsburgh has a 4.05 xFIP and can easily go to the bullpen if needed.
Marlins vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
Miami is the better team and Cabrera is a great starting pitcher. However, he tends to walk hitters, which could force the Marlins to go to their bullpen early. If that happens, the Pirates could have an edge with the pitching staff.
However, the Marlins have some hitters with pop and should push across some runs early in this game. Take the Marlins to go over their team total as they should be able to score often, especially if they get to face the weaker members of Pittsburgh's bullpen. Play Miami's team total to 5.
