Marlins vs. Yankees Odds, Pick
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8 -120/-102 | +1.5 -160 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-150 | 8 -120/-102 | -1.5 +135 |
Here's everything you need to know about Marlins vs Yankees on Monday, April 8 — including odds and a prediction.
Marlins vs Yankees odds have New York as a -156 favorite on the moneyline while the over/under is set at eight or 8.5, depending on the book. The Yankees will hand the ball to left-hander Nestor Cortes, and I am looking at his prop market for my Marlins vs Yankees pick for Monday.
Let's dive into why I am fading Cortes as I make a Marlins vs Yankees pick.
Miami Marlins
There is no denying that Miami has gotten off to a troubling start in 2024, posting a 1-9 record through the first 10 games. However, the Marlins finally got the monkey off their back with a 10-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, and I think they will continue to improve on Monday.
There is no denying that this lineup has struggled mightily out the gates this campaign, but the one thing it does well is avoid the punchout. Entering this matchup, Miami ranks in the top half of the league in K%.
These figures improve further when facing left-handed pitching, ranking 10th in K% against left-handers with a mere 20.8 K%. Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, six of the Marlins' nine hitters possess a K% south of 21%.
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New York Yankees
Cortes has gotten off to a terrible start in 2024, posting a 0-1 record with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through his first two starts. His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%.
The left-hander has particularly struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the 13th percentile in Whiff% and 22nd percentile in K%. He has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in each of those two outings, a trend that is likely to continue against Miami.
Through 35 career plate appearances against Cortes, this current Marlins lineup possesses a mere 17.1 K% and 20 Whiff%.
Marlins vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
Maybe I'm naive, but there seems to be a narrative in the media that Cortes is a good MLB pitcher. With all due respect, I don't see it.
Over his past 24 starts, he possesses a 4.01 ERA. He has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in 15 of those 24 outings, which is why I want to fade his strikeout prop against Miami on Monday.
Yes, the Marlins have struggled, which is why we are catching this prop at plus-money. However, the one thing that this lineup has done well is avoid the punchout.
Pick: Nestor Cortes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120)
