Marlins vs. Yankees Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+180 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -114 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-215 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 -105 |
The Miami Marlins will take the field at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday as they look to avoid a three-game sweep. Miami’s season is off to a historically bad start at 1-11, so it'll need to right the ship quickly if it wants any hope of competing.
Marcus Stroman has looked fantastic for the Yankees so far, having not surrendered a run to this point through two starts. However, past the surface-level numbers, Stroman doesn’t look infallible and still could be prone to allowing some runs.
After digging deeper into the profiles of these two teams, I think that there's plenty of value to be had on the total. So, here's a Marlins vs. Yankees pick for today, including MLB odds and predictions for Wednesday, April 10.
Miami Marlins
This start for Miami has been objectively terrible. However, there's some reason for optimism.
One of the main struggles for this Miami offense has been its performance against left-handed pitching. The Marlins have the worst OBP in the league against lefties by far (.236) and also rank last in SLG%, wOBA, wRC+, ISO and BABIP.
Unfortunately for them, they also have 229 plate appearances this season against lefties, far more than anyone else in the Major Leagues.
While still not great, this team has been much more respectable against right-handed pitching. The Marlins rank 20th in wOBA, 22nd in wRC+ and 18th in SLG% from this side of the plate.
It’s not typical that a team has more plate appearances against left-handers than right, so I would expect that this would come back to earth. They should get better results against left-handers going forward and should face more RHPs as well.
Even with these dramatic side splits, Miami’s Statcast data is a bit more promising. It ranks 14th in average exit velocity and 14th in Barrel%.
I would like to see this team get a higher launch angle to hit less ground balls and for more power, but it could be an offense that's just slightly below league average as compared to what it's shown so far.
Ryan Weathers will take the bump for the Marlins on Wednesday. The former seventh-overall pick of the draft is still early in his career, as this will be just his fifth start in a Marlins uniform.
This season, he's pitched nine innings between his two starts, allowing four runs and striking out 11. He hasn’t been particularly impressive, sporting a 100 Stuff+ and 83 Location+ with a 4.72 xFIP.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have been on the other end of the spectrum this season in regards to their record. They're 10-2, currently holding the best record in baseball.
New York’s offense ranks ninth in wOBA and fourth in wRC+ so far this year. Most of its success has come from its patience at the plate. The Yankees lead the league in walk rate at 12.7%.
Stroman has pitched 12 scoreless innings to begin the year. He's struck out 10 batters in these two starts and has a WHIP of 0.83. At some point though, Stroman will start to come back to earth a bit. He has an xFIP of 3.75 and a FIP of 2.56.
Stroman’s Stuff+ of 97 and Location+ don’t exactly scream that he'll keep performing like a Cy Young Award contender going forward, so I would bet on this regressing in the near future.
Marlins vs. Yankees
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Yankees have been able to have success offensively this season by being disciplined at the plate. Weathers has a 9.4% career walk rate and 11.1% walk rate this year, which are both below league average.
New York also has a 15.3% walk rate and the highest OBP in the league against left-handers this season.
Miami will be getting its preferred side of the platoon split, as it'll face a right-hander in Stroman. While still not a great unit, I think that this Marlins offense will show to be better than it's been to this point in the year.
Stroman’s stuff hasn’t been spectacular, so I’m not yet buying into this supposed breakout from a 33-year-old that we've seen start 225 games in the Majors. I’d expect Stroman to be similar to what he's always been going forward.
I like taking the over in this matchup at 8.5 runs scored. I think that between the two sides there will be opportunities to get runners on base and potentially run this score up well over the total.
