Merrill Kelly Player Props: Strikeout Pick for Thursday Night

Merrill Kelly Player Props: Strikeout Pick for Thursday Night article feature image
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Pictured: Merrill Kelly (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

My strikeout prop pick for Thursday night is Merrill Kelly to go UNDER 4.5 strikeouts — find my analysis and scouting report for this prop bet below.

Merrill Kelly Player Props: Strikeout Pick vs. Yankees

Diamondbacks Logo
Thursday, April 3
7:05 p.m. ET
ARID, YES
Yankees Logo
Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110)
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Merrill Kelly

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Merrill Kelly struck out just one batter over 5/13 innings in his season debut. It wasn’t quite as ugly as the box score suggests — my model had him at 4.1 expected strikeouts — so there’s definitely room for improvement. But this isn’t Paul Skenes we’re talking about, and even his expected K% came in below my preseason projection.

Normally, this would look like a classic buy-low spot. Kelly’s not a huge strikeout guy to begin with, and the market may be overcorrecting after one game. But I’m seeing a few red flags that make me lean the other way.

The biggest concern? Edge% — Kelly threw just 34% of his pitches on the edge in his first start. That’s a problem, especially for a guy who relies on locating over raw stuff.

The Cubs were able to pick up on ball vs. strike immediately and didn’t chase — just a 20% chase rate, which would be the lowest of Kelly’s career over a full season.

He’ll likely find his rhythm eventually and do a better job getting hitters to expand the zone. But this Yankees lineup is not the place to find it:

  • Lowest chase rate in the league
  • Low first-pitch swing rate
  • Kelly already struggled in both areas in his debut, and if he’s behind in counts again tonight, that could be a problem.

There’s also a platoon split working against him. Kelly has struck out righties 5% more often over his career (and +18% last year!). The Yankees are expected to feature six left-handed bats, which could suppress Kelly's strikeout upside even more.

Throw in a fresh D-backs bullpen and an off day Monday, and there’s a realistic path for Kelly to get pulled a bit early, especially if the Yankees string together some early runs.

All things considered, I’m projecting his fair price closer to -140 on the under. At -110, there’s value here.

About the Author
Sean Koerner leads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports projections and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he's a top expert in the field, consistently ranking first in the FantasyPros Accuracy standings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts popular podcasts and can do projections for all sports, making him a go-to source for accurate sports predictions.

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.

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