Mets vs. Angels Odds
| Mets Odds | -105 |
| Angels Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Coming out of a 14-game losing streak, the Angels offense may be undervalued in the betting market, and I think we are quite likely to see Mike Trout and company put together a big performance on Sunday Night Baseball.
In turn we have some strong value looking towards a single-game parlay, correlating a big offensive day from the Angels in this spot against Taijuan Walker.
The Parlay (+310): Angels -1.5, Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases, Angels Team Total Over 4.5
FanDuel Same-Game Parlay: Mets vs. Angels
Angels -1.5:
Taijuan Walker is a clear regression candidate, and this potent Angels lineup should do damage at home.
Walker has pitched to an xERA of 4.18 with a 4.58 xFIP this season. His xwOBA has continued to worsen over the last 100 PA's, and he holds a Strikeout Rate of just 13%, which is the eighth-lowest in the MLB among pitchers with at least 27 innings pitched.
So while Walker holds a very reasonable 3.28 ERA altogether, he is due for far worse results moving forward, and that regression has begun to set in over his last three starts in which he has pitched to an ERA of 4.44 with a WHIP of 1.48.
Patrick Sandoval will start for the Angels, and the lefty has been surprisingly solid yet again throughout 48 innings this season, pitching to an xERA of 3.51.
Sandoval will meet a depleted Mets lineup which continues to find little in the way of hard contact and appears to be a likely candidate for negative regression moving forward.
The Mets have also been far less potent versus left-handed pitching this season. They likely aren't offering the kind of challenge to Sandoval you might expect given their excellent run production and overall record.
Los Angeles Team Total Over 4.5:
As outlined, Walker offers a soft starting pitching target against the Angels, who seem to be trending in the right direction offensively this week and will be fielding a tough lineup Sunday.
The Angels' franchise record 14-game losing streak is still fresh in our minds, but that was clearly an anomaly compared to how this team should perform at the plate with their talent on hand.
Los Angeles holds the eighth-best wRC++ in baseball against right-handed pitching this season at 111. The Angels also own the seventh-best wOBA of .323, which is exactly where the team's expected marks suggest it should rank.
Anthony Rendon made his return to the lineup Saturday, and it feels like the outlook surrounding this group has changed quickly over a handful of days as they have gotten healthier and a couple wins.
Mike Trout Over 1.5 Bases:
Our last leg comes from my colleague Tanner McGrath, whose piece on this game takes a deep look at why this is a great spot for Trout to continue trending upwards here.
One of the main causes for concern over the Angels' dreadful losing streak was a rare cold stretch from Trout, who went 4-for-46 with 16 strikeouts over that span.
Numbers aside, we know as long as Trout is moderately healthy, he's always going to bat effectively. His skill set is simply too deep with his otherworldly zone awareness and plate coverage.
Trout has absolutely crushed Walker historically as he is 10-for-16 lifetime against Walker with three home runs and a triple. He also has a ridiculous 100.5-mph average Exit Velocity and a .458 xBA and a 1.025 xSLG against Walker.
Trout should receive an above average amount of at-bats with how I am projecting this contest. He will also be well insulated in this now-healthier Angels lineup and will likely see some quality pitches as a result, which is an important note as walks do not count as a base towards this prop.
At +310, I believe we have some strong value to make a single-game parlay here as each of these events are highly correlated. If the Angels produce a team total of greater than four runs as I am expecting, a lot of the time that should mean a run-line cover with Sandoval likely to offer a reasonable start.
Trout has feasted in this matchup against Walker, and if the Angels are to have a big day at the plate, Trout will likely play a significant role.
