Mets vs. Angels Odds
| Mets Odds | -130 |
| Angels Odds | +110 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-105/-115) |
| Time | 9:38 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
It took a masterful performance from Shohei Ohtani both from the mound and the batter's box, but the Los Angeles Angels finally snapped their 14-game losing skid Thursday against the Red Sox.
Jhonathan Diaz will make a spot start for the Angels Friday, looking on to build on an ERA of 1.32 in 13 2/3 innings this season.
Diaz will be opposed by Tylor Megill, who will make his first start since May 11 after a trip to the IL.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding this starting pitching matchup, what can we expect from Friday's inter-league battle?
Mets' Offense Takes a Couple Hits
The shorthanded Mets posted two anemic offensive performances to close out the Padres series, and while regularly you would never want to put much stock in a two-game sample, this may be a sign of things to come for them.
Pete Alonso was injured on Tuesday after taking a pitch to the hand, and was joined in the trainer's room by Starling Marte later that night with a quadriceps injury. Both seem likely to return sooner rather than later and are listed as day-to-day, but it seems likely neither will take the field for Friday's contest.
Those two rank first and third, respectively, on the team in slugging, and for the time being the Mets are much thinner offensively.
Prior to those injuries, the Mets did appear due for some regression with regards to their ridiculous offensive production. They rank 13th in xWOBA at .333, but have turned that into a ridiculous offensive output due in large to the league's top average with runners in scoring position at .290.
The Mets are also worse against left-handed pitching, which is another concern against Diaz. New York has posted a 103 wRC+ and .309 wOBA in 677 PAs.
Megill is set to return from the IL for this contest, and is expected to throw between 70-75 pitches. Megill reportedly looked solid in a rehab start Sunday with Double-A Binghamton, throwing 53 pitches with no walks and two earned runs in three innings.
Megill owns a 3.85 xERA, and has improved upon his K/BB ratio and his hard-hit rates compared to last season's marks, although his QOPA has actually fallen to a mark of 4.33 in 2022.
Angels Due For Uptick
Los Angeles have certainly scuffled through some serious injury concerns themselves of late, as David Fletcher, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon and now Mike Trout are all injured.
However most of those names are due to return soon for the Angels, so things could certainly be looking up in the coming weeks.
The Angels sound likely to get a massive boost for tonight's game, as Mike Trout seems likely to return to the lineup.
Trout has only missed two and a half games so it's not to say the recent struggles from the Angels aren't due to his absence, but with Trout back in the lineup this Los Angeles team should not be as dreadful offensively as we have seen over the last two weeks.
Looking towards the last month, Los Angeles has batted to a 98 wRC+ and a .302 wOBA in 1,043 PAs.
Several healthy Angels appear due for some positive regression at the plate moving forward, and I feel it's quite logical to imagine this group is at a low-point right now with regards to offensive production.
The weight of ending a club-record losing streak could certainly loosen things up around the clubhouse, and the Angels will be a good candidate to go on a heater as they get healthy in the coming weeks.
Diaz will return for this start from Triple-A Salt Lake, looking to build on what has been surprisingly strong form in the majors this season.
Diaz has pitched to a 1.32 ERA in four appearances, but his xERA of 4.03 suggests negative regression is coming, as you might expect for a guy who can't lockdown a spot on this Angels roster.
Mets-Angels Pick
The Mets were already due for some regression at the plate, and now find themselves without some key bats as they head in to this matchup Friday.
The Angels have been in horrific form offensively, but it's obvious to say this unit is not nearly as bad as the recent numbers suggest and that this is a low-water mark. I believe the Los Angeles lineup actually offers an edge compared to the Mets tonight.
Diaz is the main concern to that line of thinking and the Mets are holding a pitching edge with Megill, but I still feel that +110 is a little too long in this spot and that I see value on what will surely be an unpopular play Friday.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +110 (Play to +100)
