Mets vs. Astros Odds
| Mets Odds | +120 |
| Astros Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Luis García and Carlos Carrasco have eerily similar results this season from the pitching rubber. They will go head-to-head when the Houston Astros host the New York Mets on Wednesday.
Carrasco has a 3.45 xERA against a 3.95 ERA, so he's been fairly unlucky. Meanwhile, García comes into this game with a 3.57 xERA and 3.41 ERA. The difference between the two of them is negligible.
However, the Mets have only been slightly above average against right-handed pitching in the month of June (105 wRC+). The Astros own a 129 team wRC+ and .348 OBP off of righties during that stretch.
This is the angle in this game. A moneyline bet on the Astros is the right call and presents a little value.
Mets Have Bullpen Issues
Carrasco has an elite walk rate, as he only walks around 5.4% of batters. That means the Astros have to be ready to pull the trigger in the batter’s box.
He's also upped his strikeout rate two percentage points since last season. He's a little above average in every peripheral metric, which has led to his favorable results.
Now, the Astros will be without Aledmys Díaz and Jeremy Peña, so they're short-handed at shortstop. Otherwise, the roster is healthy. Mauricio Dubón has filled in nicely with a .375 xwOBA off of righties in June.
The Astros have five other hitters in the lineup who are over the .335 mark, so this will throw a wrench in Carrasco’s plans. It could force him to exit early.
In the bullpen, the Mets have a team 4.15 ERA and 3.68 xFIP in June, meaning they have been unlucky.
They are down Trevor May and Colin Holderman. Trevor Williams and David Peterson have been getting the starting pitcher duties, so the Mets are coming into this game with a short relief staff and only 13 possible pitchers on the roster.
This could allow the Astros to exploit these issues late in the game.
Edwin Díaz has a sub 0.00 xFIP in June, so as long as Houston takes care of business before he enters the game, it's in good shape.
Astros' Garcia Should Be Able to Handle Business
García has been getting similar results to Carrasco, but he does permit a little harder contact (39th in Average Exit Velocity). That said, he's above average in walk rate and chase rate, like Carrasco.
The Mets are without James McCann and Travis Jankowski. Jeff McNeil exited the game against the Marlins on Monday (due to a sore hamstring), so this is another blow to the lineup.
Even without those names present on the lineup card, the Mets only have four hitters over the .330 xwOBA mark, so this is a distinguishable difference from the Astros.
They are top-heavy lately, so García should be able to take care of business with the bottom of the New York order.
The Astros, on the other hand, have had a top-three bullpen in June with a 2.81 collective ERA and 3.45 xFIP.
Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski were two of the weaker bullpen pieces for manager Dusty Baker, but they find themselves on the injured list.
Otherwise, aside from maybe Rafael Montero and Hector Neris, the rest of the relief corps is serviceable.
Mets-Astros Pick
The Astros have a noteworthy advantage, since they can hit throughout the batting order. The Mets have been weaker at the bottom of the order, so García should win the battle of the starting pitchers.
Once he exits, Houston has more options in the bullpen. Take the Astros from -130, and play them to -145.
Pick: Houston Astros -130 | play to -145
