The New York Mets and Houston Astros square off at Minute Maid Park for MLB Opening Day on Thursday, March 27. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast SNY and Space City Home Network.
There’s nothing quite like Opening Day in the MLB. But what makes Opening Day even more remarkable is cashing a longshot wager in the first primary slate of games for the long 6-month grind. I’m excited to dive into the mix and immediately get everybody in the win column. I was able to compile a Mets vs. Astros parlay that pays out 6-1 on your original investment.
Mets vs Astros +575 Parlay Picks
- Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts -150
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +110
- Under 8
Parlay Odds: +575 (DraftKings)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
The Mets signed Holmes in the offseason but shockingly signed him as a starting pitcher instead of a reliever. Holmes was a starter at one point in the minor league system, but he’s had moments where he looks like he’s never thrown a baseball before.
He’s been stretched out during Spring Training, but adjusting back into the fold will take some time. That said, I could easily see manager Carlos Mendoza having a short leash with Holmes, considering his stamina may not be built yet.
His strikeout total is juiced to the under, but it's also because the Astros did not strike out too often last season. There are a couple of new faces, but they pride themselves on creating a lineup that puts the ball in play.
We should see a shorter outing from Holmes here, so I’m happy to take the under on his strikeouts.
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Alvarez is 2-for-5 against Holmes in his career, with one extra-base hit. It’s a small sample size, but Holmes is a sinker ball pitcher. Alvarez has fared exceptionally well against the sinker in his career, and I tend to favor hitters earlier in the MLB season because pitchers are still trying to stretch out.
Alvarez is the best hitter in the Astros lineup, and I expect him to at least get a double or multiple hits Thursday night. Holmes has control issues at times, but the best slugger in the lineup will have at least four at-bats to get the job done.
Under 8
The line has steamed down to 8, and we have a decent pitching match on deck. Framber Valdez is amongst baseball’s best with his 60% ground-ball rate, and he also has solid strikeout stuff.
The Mets spent a lot of money bolstering their roster last season, including the big splash in Juan Soto. However, the bullpen improved, and it can not be worse than last year’s.
The Astros lineup lost a lot, and Jose Altuve is not getting any younger. Even if Holmes leaves the game early, the Mets bullpen has improved enough that I think they can contain the opposition for multiple innings.
With Holmes expected to have a limited pitch count, expect Mendoza to deploy those new shiny toys out of the pen. Valdez will likely not have a high pitch count, and I think he is fully capable of shutting down this new-look Mets lineup.
Only 3% of the bets are on the under, so I am happy to fade the public on opening day fully.
