Yesterday, the New York Mets clinched their ticket to the postseason with a thrilling 8-7 victory over the Atlanta Braves.
They'll now head to Milwaukee to take on the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Wild Card Series. Game 1 begins at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Two players I'll be backing in today's game are Luis Severino and Willy Adames, so here are my Mets vs Brewers player props for Game 1 on Tuesday, October 1.
Mets vs Brewers MLB Player Props
- Luis Severino Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+104, DraftKings)
- Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140, DraftKings)
Luis Severino Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+104)
The Mets got 5 2/3 innings on 100 pitches from Tylor Megill on Monday, who gave way to Huascar Brazoban and Adam Ottavino. Brazoban and Ottavino actually worked both games of the doubleheader and threw 35 and 17 pitches, respectively, against the Braves.
Ottavino may be an option for Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series, but Brazoban likely won't.
The big one, though, is closer Edwin Diaz, who threw a season-high 40 pitches in 1 2/3 innings.
Beginning a potential three-game series to decide their season, manager Carlos Mendoza will have to maneuver his pitching staff. If Brazoban and Diaz aren't available, that means pitchers like Ottavino, Phil Maton and Jose Butto may be preserved for the higher-leverage situations.
With this in mind, the Mets could use a lengthy start from Severino on Tuesday.
Now, Severino will have to pitch well enough for all this bullpen maneuvering to matter, but he had a solid regular season, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA and a 3.88 expected ERA.
Severino worked six innings or more in 18-of-31 starts this season and had 14 quality starts. Four of them came of late, as he pitched six innings in four of his five September starts and had a 3.64 ERA.
Severino's lone outing against the Brewers this season was a rough one, but it was also his first start of the year way back in March. He still pitched five innings despite giving up 11 hits and six runs, three of which were earned.
Two more outs in the sixth inning cashes this line for us today.
Pick: Luis Severino Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (+104)
Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
One Brewers hitter who may give Severino some trouble today is Adames.
The free agent-to-be enjoyed a career year at the perfect time, as he launched 32 homers, drove in 112 runs and had a 3.2 WAR. When you include doubles, 42% of Adames' hits this season went for extra bases.
He also has two extra-base hits against Severino, as he's 4-for-11 (.364) with a double, a home run, three runs batted in and a 1.189 OPS.
Adames went 2-for-3 with the double against Severino in the aforementioned March game, a 7-6 Brewers victory. While that was at the start of the season, Adames led the Brewers in both homers and runs batted in.
Now he'll now be counted on to produce in the postseason.
In 2019, Adames hit .294 with a double and two home runs in his first postseason appearance with the Rays. The following year, he struggled mightily during Tampa's run to the World Series.
However, since joining the Brewers, Adames is hitting .375 with two doubles in six postseason games. He had three hits and a double in Game 1 of the Brewers' NL Wild Card Series last year, which was also at home.
With two hits or a double, Adames can get two total bases again today.
Pick: Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
