Mets vs Brewers MLB Player Props — NL Wild Card Game 2
- Sean Manaea Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-170 at bet365)
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 at bet365)
Sean Manaea Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-170)
Manaea has been one of the better National League starters in the second half, as he pitched a 3.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP since the All-Star break. He finished the season with a strong month of September that included a 3.32 ERA and 3.94 xFIP across five starts. In his September starts, Manaea held a Pitching+ rating of 96 and a K-BB% of 16.6.
Manaea pitching as well as he has recently works in favor of a bet on him to allow over 1.5 earned runs, and this looks like a good opportunity to sell. Even at -170, this prop doesn't looked juiced enough in this particular spot.
Manaea made a big start in Milwaukee on Friday and had a disastrous outing, allowing seven hits and five earned runs across just 3 2/3 innings. He managed only one strikeout and allowed an xBA of .277. Manaea's underlying results are drastically worse on the road this season, as he holds a 4.77 xFIP and K-BB% of 11.6, compared to a 3.34 xFIP and K-BB% of 21.3 at home.
The Mets bullpen is stretched quite thin, so Manaea could get somewhat of a long leash in this spot and likely would not be taken out at the first signs of struggle like we might see in other wild-card games as a result. I'll lay the hefty -170 price tag with that in mind and would play to -175.
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
The rest of the Mets lineup picked up Lindor in Tuesday's matchup. Lindor failed to follow up his his massive playoff-clinching home run, posting an 0-for-4 day at the plate. This looks like a good spot to bet on a bounce back from Lindor in particular, given the splits working in his favor.
Though Lindor is likely still dealing with some pain related to his back issue, he has remained effective in batting .286 in five games since returning. He holds a 47% hard-hit rate in that span and struck out 17% of the time. In Lindor's last 103 PAs versus righties, he holds a .649 slug-rate and an OPS of 1.037, which rank behind only Shohei Ohtani in that span (minimum 70 ABs).
Lindor will likely face Frankie Montas from the left side given that Montas has allowed a .497 slug rate to lefties this season.
Lindor has been well insulated of late by Jose Iglesias, who enters this matchup on a 23-game hitting streak, and who will likely bat second once again today. That's a positive note for this prop given that a walk is a bad outcome for Lindor's plate appearances.
Lindor has been above average versus all pitch varieties this season but has been most dominant against fastballs, with an xSLG of .602. He has also been least effective against off-speed pitches with an xSLG of .443. Montas features four types of fastballs in his arsenal and does not throw a changeup, which could also work in favor of Lindor hitting for power in this matchup.
At +105, I see value backing the Mets MVP to come through in this critical spot.
