It will be all hands on deck for the Mets and Brewers, who aren't exactly starting aces in a do-or-die Wild Card Game 3 on Thursday, Oct. 3, with Jose Quintana set to take on Tobias Myers.
For my Mets vs Brewers player props for Game 3, I'll be targeting Quintana and William Contreras — find my MLB prop picks and analysis below.
Nick Martin's Mets vs Brewers Game 3 Player Props
- Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150, bet365)
- William Contreras More Total Bases Than Jose Iglesias (+155, bet365)
Jose Quintana Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
New York's Quintana struck out nine Brewers in their last matchup on September 28, which will likely have some eyes popping at today's low total of 4.5 K's. But the September matchup looks t0 be an outlier for Quintana in a matchup versus the Brewers, and unless he is pitching a gem, he will only work twice through the order today.
Quintana held a Stuff+ of only 83 in his final 10 starts of the season and held a swinging strike rate of 8.6%. He generated a chase rate of just 28% this season and is now facing a Brewers squad that chased less often than any team outside of the Padres this season.
The Brewers struck out 24.9% of the time versus left-handed pitching in the second half of the season, but they also walked a ton in that span (10.3%) and held an eighth-ranked OBP. Over the entirety of the season, Milwaukee also averaged the most pitches per plate appearance.
Since 2022, hitters have swung at just 44% of Quintana's non-fastballs, and he has thrown his fastball for a strike only 63% of the time this season.
Seeing Quintana last week could also work in favor of the Brewers in this critical spot, and we should expect a far more disciplined approach. With Quintana on a short leash, I'm willing to lay the juice and bet him to stay under 4.5 K's at anything better than -160.
William Contreras More Total Bases Than Jose Iglesias (+155)
Jose Iglesias extended his hitting streak to 24 games in last night's matchup, and that note alone will surely turn plenty of people off of this prop. A deep dive suggests that +155 is actually a pretty solid number to back Contreras in this specific matchup, though.
Given the way New York's lineup has outperformed Milwaukee's unit in this season, that tells us that pitching and home-field advantage are the reasons the Mets are an underdog in this matchup. Tobias Myers pitched to a 3.97 xFIP and allowed a .252 xBA and a Pitching+ rating of 97. Quintana pitched to a 4.44 xFIP, 258 xBA and a Pitching+ rating of 93.
The Brewers' bullpen has pitched to a 2.20 ERA over the last month, as well as a 3.48 xFIP. In the same span, Mets relievers have posted a 4.23 ERA but hold an excellent 3.35 xFIP. Milwaukee's unit is in better shape, though, as only Joel Payamps has thrown more than 30 pitches over the last three days.
Contreras has slugged .486 with an .892 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, and Quintana has allowed an xFIP of 4.65 against righties. Contreras also hard-hit 39.6% of balls against lefties.
Righties have hit just .224 versus Myers, and he has also allowed an xFIP of 3.54 versus righties. His strikeout rate jumps to 25.2% against righties, and his WHIP drops 1.00 to righties.
Iglesias has slugged .399 versus righties this season while making soft contact 20.4% of the time and hard contact only 25% of the time.
Given the splits working in Contreras favor in the first two at-bats of the game and the fact that he is an underdog in this market, anything better than +145 provides value.
