Mets vs. Cardinals Odds & Picks: Afternoon Betting Value on New York

Mets vs. Cardinals Odds

Steven Matz will start for the Saint Louis Cardinals in the culmination of their series with the New York Mets, who will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound Wednesday.

Matz has not looked particularly sharp. He owns a 4.71 xERA, while Carrasco sits at 2.41. The Mets have not done well against southpaws on the young season (98 wRC+), and the Cardinals have been even worse against righties (89 wRC+).

Given the discrepancy between the starting pitchers, the slight edge the Mets have at the plate and the abysmal Saint Louis bullpen, is there value on taking New York to wrap up this series with a victory?

Let's look at both side of the matchup to determine the best way to bet this matinee.

Mets Have Clear Starting Pitching Edge

Carrasco has been sharp in the early going. He has only allowed three earned runs in 18 1/3 innings of work, which is about as much as a team can ask for in a back-end starter. He is giving up some hard contact. He ranks in the 36^th percentile in Average Exit Velocity at 89.8 MPH.

As a team, though, the Cardinals rank third-to-last in collective Exit Velocity. This does not indicate future success, but it surely does not help their case against Carrasco. In addition, while facing righties this season, only one hitter has eclipsed a .340 xwOBA, and that is Tommy Edman.

Nolan Arenado has also been solid at .335, but there is a significant plummet after him. These variables should play into Carrasco’s game plan. After all, the Cards also rank sixth in Chase Rate as a team.

Carrasco has walked just two hitters this season. Pair that with an above average overall Chase Rate, and that is a recipe for disaster for Saint Louis.

After Carrasco exits, the Mets' bullpen has been very stable. In fact, they are getting unlucky. They have a 3.13 xFIP versus a 3.45 team ERA. Chasen Shreve and Joely Rodríguez are the only lefties in the ‘pen.

They would likely benefit from not getting much action in this game, as Saint Louis can club the ball off of left-handers. They have other options who should be able to mow down the Cardinal lineup handily, once the game turns over to them.

Cardinals Don't Matchup Well

Matz is similar to Carrasco in that he has allowed an Average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH. His Hard Hit Percentage is far worse, though, at 43.9% compared to 36.4%. Like Carrasco, he does not walk many hitters, but he is essentially just permitting teams to hit him hard more often.

Now, to be frank, one of the other teams lower in Average Exit Velocity than the Cards is the Mets. They are tied with the Reds at 86.6 MPH. This says to expect some regression from their current spot in the standings.

They do have two hitters with a .400+ xwOBA against lefties: J.D. Davis and Eduardo Escobar. Brandon Nimmo is at .338, but again, there is a large drop-off. This is more of a fade Matz situation than a pro-Mets spot.

The Cardinals' bullpen has also had its bumps in the road, as fans saw in the ninth inning of Monday night’s series opener, when they gave up five in the ninth inning to lose the game in conjunction with an Arenado error.

Digressing from that point, they have a top-heavy bullpen that certainly does not boast the level of depth as the Mets. Moving Jordan Hicks to the rotation as an opener has short-handed the bunch a bit, too. The struggles for Genesis Cabrera and Giovanny Gallegos always leave the door open for a comeback.

Mets-Cardinals Pick

The Mets are the better team between these two and Carrasco is a sharper pitcher than Matz. New York will be able to take advantage of Matz’s shortcomings and perhaps put up some late inning runs on the weak spots of the Saint Louis bullpen.

Expect Carrasco to prosper against this lineup. Even if the Mets may win this game like 3-1, getting them at even money to -125 has value. Take the Mets.

Pick: New York Mets -110 | play to -125