Mets vs Cubs Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP Picks
Via Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Happ #8 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after his fly out against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field on June 02, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois.
The New York Mets have not lost a series since late May and look to continue their recent hot streak on Sunday Night Baseball in the series finale with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
It's been two different stories in each game thus far, with the Mets blitzing Shota Imanaga in the series opener en route to an 11-1 win. The Cubs responded on Saturday with an 8-1 win of their own.
Chicago looks to slowly climb back to .500 and on Sunday turns to right-hander Javier Assad. The Mets counter with arguably their ace in Luis Severino, who threw eight innings of one-hit ball against the Cubs in late April.
Let's have a little Sunday night fun here and sweat out a long-shot Mets vs Cubs same game parlay. There's no NBA Finals anymore, and the Stanley Cup isn't until tomorrow. So without further ado…
Here's my Mets vs Cubs Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mets vs Cubs Parlay: Sunday Night Baseball SGP Picks
- Mets ML
- J.D. Martinez 2+ Bases
- Ian Happ RBI
Parlay Odds: +1600 (bet365)
Underlying metrics have always worked against Javier Assad. Each of his last three seasons with Chicago, Assad’s xERA was over a run higher than his actual ERA. The right-hander does have a 23.7% Strikeout Rate but ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in Chase Rate and Whiff Rate.
Assad has a 100+ Location+, but his other metrics grade out below average as his Stuff+ is 88, and his Pitching+ is 95. All but one pitch grades out above average, per Stuff+ metrics. In general, Assad grades at the 50th percentile or worse in nearly all metrics (Barrel Rate, Hard-hit Rate, xBA).
The last time he faced New York, Assad threw five innings of one-run ball. That was during his red-hot stretch in May, though he has begun to fall down to Earth a tad. In his last six starts, Assad has allowed six home runs and has pitched to a 4.75 ERA.
Luis Severino oppoeses Assad and has been the perfect free agent addition for the Mets. Severino returned from an injury-riddled 2023 and owns a 3.65 xERA through 14 starts. The right-hander is an elite ground-ball pitcher (51%) and ranks in the 86th percentile in barrels (4.7%).
Severino’s Stuff+ (105), Location+ (101) and PItching+ (100) all grade out average or better, too. While he generates chases at an above-average rate, he ranks among the bottom 20% of pitchers in whiffs/strikeouts. The last time Severino squared off with Chicago, he threw eight innings of one-hit ball while allowing just one run. This was his best performance to date.
In a battle between Severino and Assad, the edge belongs to the Mets' right-hander. On offense, the Mets at 104 wRC+ grade out much better than Chicago at 96 wRC+. The bullpen advantage also lies with the Mets (3.74 xFIP, sixth) over the Cubs (4.11 xFIP, 20th).
The next step here is adding a Mets player prop. The most interesting statistic I’ve found with Assad is his reverse splits. In 31 fewer at-bats, right-handed hitters have one fewer extra-base hit than lefties. They also strike out significantly less often.
J.D. Martinez is swinging one of the hottest bats for New York right now, so let’s go with the veteran here. Over the last 15 days, nearly half of his hits have gone for extra bases as he’s hitting .319 with a 1.077 OPS.
Against right-handed pitchers in general, Martinez has a 43% Extra-base Hit Rate and a 123 wRC+, which ranks third on the team. His .198 Isolated Power is second.
Martinez has exceeded this number in each game this series and six of his last nine games. Among all hitters, he ranks in the top 2% in Barrel Rate (18.1%) and xSLG (.571). He is also in the 91st percentile in xBA (.289), too.
Martinez is arguably the best overall hitter in this Mets lineup. Expect him to do some damage on Sunday night.
If you don’t want to juice up the parlay, you can play it safer with a favorable and correlated Mets prop like Francisco Lindor to score a run or a Pete Alonso RBI. But for the sake of a same-game parlay, I’m going to throw some negative correlation into the mix and take a Cubs prop.
Prior to this series, Ian Happ was swinging an extremely hot bat for the Cubs. He had two or more hits in five straight prior to his 0-for-7 series vs. New York. He has supplanted himself right in the middle of this Cubs lineup and has been a big RBI producer.
In the last seven games, Happ has recorded nine RBI, with at least one RBI in five of those seven games (71%).
Over the last 30 days, Happ has a .930 OPS and a near-60% Extra-base Hit Rate. He has 25 RBI in that span and has been one of the best bats in an otherwise sluggish lineup. Of all the Cubs hitters, he should have the most opportunities and traction on the paths.
This also is a 9% edge based on our Action pro projections (0.6 RBI projected). The addition of Happ boosts our parlay up to +1600 to make this parlay a fun Sunday night sweat!
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