Mets vs Cubs Odds | Friday Betting Predictions (6/21)
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | +130 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 7.5 -120o / +100u | -155 |
Shota Imanaga is in the running for National League Cy Young Award winner, but he will be tasked with one of the hottest teams in baseball, especially against left-handed pitching. The New York Mets have slugged against southpaws, and Imanaga has been prone to hard contact and keeping the ball in the air.
There is a strong chance the wind is blowing slightly in at Wrigley Field, which is heavily influenced by weather patterns. That said, José Quintana will be throwing opposite of Imanaga. The Cubs have hit lefties, like Quintana, hard lately.
Given these results, expect some hard-hit balls and some lively offense Friday afternoon in Chicago.
New York Mets
Quintana is not the starting pitcher he once was on the Chicago White Sox. He is only striking out 16%, while walking 8% of them. His Average Exit Velocity is nearly 90 MPH, and his Hard-Hit Rate is up to about 45%. This has increased over 12% since 2023.
All of these variables have led him to a 4.98 ERA and xERA well over 5.00. His off-speed pitches are pretty lively, but otherwise, this matchup does not bode well with his former team.
The Mets are slugging the ball against lefties…literally.
They own a 167 wRC+ in June off of southpaws, like Imanaga with an OPS over .900. They are also walking at an 8.9% clip with a strikeout rate below 19%.
New York has nine active bats with a .330+ xwOBA with those same parameters in place. They have seven above .400. Overall, the Mets have hit lefties at almost 90 MPH with a combined .381 xwOBA, so this is likely one of the worst matchups Imanaga has had in recent games.
The Mets have a decent bullpen in June at a 3.37 xFIP. However, Quintana not striking hitters out and allowing hard contact could lead him to an early exit. Even though the Mets only have two arms above a 4.00 xFIP, we could see them if the Cubs hit Q early.
Chicago Cubs
Imanaga is clearly the better of these two pitchers, but the “rookie” southpaw has a 3.07 xERA against a 1.90 ERA. He will see some negative regression, although the end of his season will have some favorable numbers.
His Average Exit Velocity is above 88 MPH, but his issue is that his ground-ball rate is in the 13th percentile. While his strikeout and walk rates are well above average, the Mets have some bats who can keep the ball in the air.
The Cubs have a 113 wRC+, 8.2% walk rate, and 17.2% strikeout rate against lefties in June. Both of these teams being well above average is a bit uncharacteristic with how this season has gone for most teams.
They have seven bats with a .319+ xwOBA. Chicago's lineup isn't as red-hot as the Mets, but since it has seven bats with a .319+xwOBA, the Cubs should get the job done against the weaker-than-average starter.
The Cubs relief staff has been a major discussion in baseball as no one can close down a game. They do have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP, but no one in this bullpen has been a lockdown reliever.
Mets vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
This might be the game, where Imanaga sees some regression. He will still be a great pitcher by the end of the year, but the Mets are the wrong team to face right now. The Cubs have also done well against lefties and should hit Quintana hard. Take the over in this one with a nice day at Wrigley Field. Bet to 9.5.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Bet to 9.5)
