Mets vs Cubs Odds & Sunday Night Baseball Prediction
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +160 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -192 |
The Cubs are finally starting to show signs of life — they've hit a lot better over the last week en route to wins in three of their last four games. Around an 11-1 romping at the hands of the Mets on Friday, the Cubs' pitching staff has done their job despite two recent injuries of significance.
After a decisive victory on Saturday, the Cubs will contest the rubber match on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball as Javier Assad steps to the hill against Luis Severino. Coming off his worst start of the season, can Severino find what's needed here to deliver New York a ninth win in 11 games?
Let's get right into our MLB betting preview of Sunday Night Baseball and a Mets vs Cubs prediction.
New York Mets
The Mets remain one of the hottest offenses in baseball. They began their run by laying waste to the Nationals' pitching in the nation's capitol a few weeks ago and touching up the Rangers earlier this week. They're fourth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and third over the past seven days as they boast some excellent power numbers and have recorded a plethora of hits with a firmly above-average Walk Rate.
Strikeouts have held the Mets back from even more over the past week, with a third strike ending nearly a quarter of their plate appearances. However, tonight they'll face a pitcher in Assad who's been nothing more than an average punch-out arm with a poor Chase Rate and Whiff Rate.
New York's starter here, Severino, hasn't exactly hunted strikeouts either, but he's done a far better job on contact than his counterpart. He's found his ground-ball touch this season thanks to some solid work with his sinker, putting forth his best year in that area since he was a rookie back in 2015.
That's helped him to a .240 Expected Batting Average, and with one of the better Barrel Rates around at just 4.7%, he's limited opponents to a .371 Expected Slugging and has surrendered just eight home runs in 84 1/3 innings.
Chicago Cubs
Assad has been a contact-oriented pitcher in his own right, but his path to a solid 2.75 ERA has come in a different fashion. It's hard to call him an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but he's allowed them at four points higher than the league average, and in June, his Fly-ball Rate has skyrocketed to 37.8% from his season average of 29.2%.
Assad thankfully receives a bit of a park upgrade at home in Chicago, pitching at the 11th-hardest venue to hit home runs. That's most of the reason he's pitched to a 1.69 ERA at Wrigley Field in seven outings as opposed to a 3.70 ERA in eight road starts, surrendering just two of the eight home runs against him in those starts, spanning 37 1/3 innings.
As we've seen with Shota Imanaga, aside from Friday's disaster, fly balls generally do the trick here — especially with Chicago's infield defense taking a step back this season.
Offensively, the Cubs seem to be almost back to where they were earlier in the season. Their Strikeout and Walk Rates have recovered over the last week of play, and while they lack the overwhelming power that the Mets have at the moment, they're hitting .260 over that span. Against ground-ball pitchers, they've been a much stronger team by hitting .240 compared to .226 against fly-ball arms.
Mets vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Cubs may own a poor -0.44 Run Value per 100 sinkers this season to rank 21st in the game, but that number has moved into positive territory over the last two weeks, which has come along with excellent production against four-seamers.
That's going to be incredibly vital here against Severino, who has generated a ton of outs on the ground with those two offerings. Chicago can also feel great about its performance against ground-ball pitchers heading into this one.
On the other hand, while the Mets did explode at the dish against Imanaga on Friday, the conditions for power here shouldn't quite feel the same with the wind forecasted to blow in from left-center field at a park which already offers up few home runs. This should help Assad continue to get outs in the air, something that he's done to an extreme degree this month.
You have to trust in the park to do its job here and take away the biggest thing the Mets have going for them, and it's also very encouraging to see the Cubs entering a strong matchup with some much better plate appearances over the past week or so.
