Mets vs Cubs Prediction | MLB Odds & Spread Pick
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 +100o /-120u | -1.5 +145 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 +100o /-120u | +1.5 -175 |
Mets vs Cubs odds have the Cubs installed as -120 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 7.5. For my Mets vs Cubs prediction, I will be looking at the run line.
Mets vs Cubs on Wednesday features Shota Imanaga on the mound for Chicago against Jose Butto for New York.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Cubs pick.
New York Mets
Butto has gotten off to a strong start with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through four starts. However, his underlying metrics suggest that these results are unsustainable.
The right-hander ranks in the 26th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%. The expected regression has already started to kick in as Butto surrendered four runs in less than six innings in his most recent start against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Mets lost that game by two runs.
Meanwhile, Butto may not get a ton of run support as New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
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Chicago Cubs
Those hitting woes are likely to continue against Imanaga, who has gotten off to a torrid start in his rookie campaign. Through five starts, the left-hander is 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP.
Chicago won all five of those games by at least two runs.
Unlike Butto, Imanaga's underlying metrics are strong. He ranks in the 76th percentile in xERA and the 95th percentile in pitching run value.
Also unlike Butto, Imanaga is likely to get some run support. This season, the Cubs rank fifth in the league in runs scored per game, a product of their ability to rack up extra-base hits.
Mets vs. Cubs
Betting Pick & Prediction
Imanaga is a stronger pitcher than Butto, both statistically and analytically. Not only will Chicago possesses the pitching advantage, but its lineup is also far stronger than New York's.
That just leaves the bullpen, which is the Mets' only edge in this game. However, I don't think the gap in bullpens outweighs the gaps between the lineups and starting pitchers.
Finally, I think there is more value in backing the Cubs on the run line rather than laying -116 on the moneyline. Chicago has won all five of Imanaga's starts this year by at least two runs.
On the other hand, each of New York's past seven losses (prior to Tuesday night's game) have come by at least two runs.
