Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -118 | 9.5 -110 / -100 | -1.5 +136 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +100 | 9.5 -110 / -100 | +1.5 -164 |
The New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks engage in a Fourth of July battle on Tuesday at Chase Field. The pitching matchup sees Kodai Senga face off against Zach Davies.
The surprising D-backs still lead the NL West while the disappointing Mets sit 18.5 games out of first place in the NL East. Despite this chasm, the two teams are much closer according to a metric as simple as Pythagorean win-loss — 46-39 for Arizona compared to 41-43 for New York. The Diamondbacks are the fifth-luckiest team by Pythag; the Mets have been the seventh unluckiest.
That, combined with a slight pitching edge, is likely why this line opened at basically a pick'em. In fact, as of writing, and with only two books having posted numbers, bettors can almost arbitrage this game, with FanDuel having -104 on the Mets and DraftKings having -105 on the Diamondbacks.
The books basically see the Mets vs. Diamondbacks series opener on Tuesday, July 4, as a coin flip.
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New York Mets
Kodai Senga toes the rubber for the Mets, and despite the second-highest BB/9 among pitchers with as many innings, Senga has actually been quite steady this season. He's allowed five runs once and a few four-run appearances, but his 3.53 ERA/4.01 FIP paints the picture of a solid – albeit not mind-blowing – pitcher.
The Diamondbacks are decent at drawing free passes — they rank 19th for the season, but fifth over the last month. I typically don't weigh last-30-day stats heavier than season-long stats, but in the case of a lineup with many young players who may be settling into more patient approaches, I think it does have some value.
The Snakes are also hellraisers when they get on the basepaths, ranking fourth in steals and second in baserunning. Needless to say, they're not an ideal team to hand out free passes to.
Mets rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez is one of the best catchers to steal against; he's given up the third-most steals this season (53), with one of the lowest caught-stealing rates.
While Senga has not been the best pitcher to run on (only four steals allowed despite all those walks), look for a live opportunity to bet on one of the Diamondbacks speedsters, particularly if someone like Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy or Geraldo Perdomo get a chance with Adam Ottavino or Dominic Leone pitching – they're two of the worst pitchers at holding runners on.
Arizona Diamondbacks
For the Diamondbacks, they turn to Zach Davies, a starter with command issues of his own.
By ERA, Davies is a far cry from Senga (almost three runs higher at 6.54), but his FIP is nearly the exact same (4.06 to 4.01). I think Senga has been the better pitcher and project him forward as such, but the difference may not be as large as the ERA gap suggests.
That being said, I am looking at a Mets batter for some action on Tuesday.
Tommy Pham is absolutely the type of player whose props you want to hammer when he's hot. For most players, a streak may just be noise, but with Pham, you can see when he is locked in compared to when he is scuffling – and right now, he is locked in.
Since May 28, he's slashing .378/.431/.694 with six homers and 43 combined runs and RBI. In fact, of the 25 starts he's had in that stretch, he's cleared the 1.5 hits + runs + RBI plateau 20 times.
He's not going to clear that 1.5 mark at an 80% clip going forward, but he is deserving every bit of this hot streak, with a Baseball Savant page more red than Satan.
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Mets vs. Diamondbacks Betting Pick
Despite the ERA gap, I do lean D-backs. They have the superior offense against righties and have the better bullpen, which is also well-rested.
They've been doing the little things right all season, while the Mets have been the exact opposite.
Pick: D-backs ML (-104) |
However, the bet I really like is on Tommy Pham.
I'll be on his runs prop, as well as his hits + runs + RBI prop. He should absolutely eat against Davies.
Prop Picks: Tommy Pham Over 0.5 Runs (+110; FanDuel) & Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI |
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